Military holds drill aimed at preparing forces for all-out war against Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas; exercise did not include soldiers, live-fire.
In the face of a changing Middle East, the IDF held a set of war games this week aimed at preparing the military for all-out war against Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas.
The exercise did not include soldiers or live-fire exercises, but was held to drill commanders and their decisions in the event of a large-scale war on multiple fronts.
Israel to Deploy Four More “Iron Dome” Anti-Rocket Defences
Israel is planning to deploy four more batteries of its “Iron Dome” short-range missile defence system, Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Sunday.
Speaking on military radio, Barak said: “With the financial help of the Americans, we hope to equip ourselves with four new ‘Iron Dome’ batteries.
[...] According to plans, the system will first be deployed along the border of the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, from where militants fired a daily barrage of improvised rockets prompting Israel to launch a devastating 22-day offensive in December 2008.
It will then be deployed along the Lebanese border, from where Hezbollah militants fired some 4,000 rockets into northern Israel during a 2006 war. It was that experience which prompted the development of Iron Dome.
Israel’s Minister of Public Security Yitzhak Aharonovitch warned on Tuesday that Israel and Gaza are on the verge of another flare-up like Operation Cast Lead, Israel Radio reported.
[...] In response to a query by Xinhua, Aharonovitch’s media advisor was emphatic that “the minister meant exactly what he said, that he believes that there will soon be another war with Gaza.”
A US embassy convoy in Lebanon was stoned on Saturday in the southern port city of Sidon by a group of unknown assailants, the embassy in the capital Beirut confirmed.
The group threw stones at the convoy while it was touring a touristic area of Sidon, the Lebanese state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported.
‘The Lebanese army immediately cordoned off the scene and arrested some of the men responsible for the attack,’ the NNA added.
According the the Israel Defense Forces, Hizbullah has built bunkers and underground weapons depots in most southern Lebanese villages as it continues building its army, the Associated Press reports.
A memo from the IDF brass to Israeli embassies on Thursday to Israel details the acceleration of Hizbullah’s fortification of the volatile border region since the end of the 2006 Lebanon war.
The memo says, “Hezbollah has built as many as 550 bunkers in the southern Lebanon region, holding various weapons. In addition, the organization has built 300 underground facilities and 100 storage units for munitions including rockets, missiles and other weapons.”
The potential for an uptick in violence in Lebanon that threatens U.S. citizens is very real, the U.S. State Department said in a travel warning.
The State Department said it was urging U.S. citizens to avoid traveling to Lebanon and said all U.S. employees in the country should keep a low profile.
“The potential in Lebanon for a spontaneous upsurge in violence is real,” the warning read. “Lebanese government authorities are not able to guarantee protection for citizens or visitors to the country should violence erupt suddenly.”
The warning said that anti-Western groups like Hezbollah remain a persistent threat and sporadic violence in Hezbollah strongholds in the south of the country makes travel risky.
Last month, seven Estonian bicyclists were kidnapped from the area in what the State Department says was a planned attack. Their whereabouts remain unknown.
Sectarian strife has emboldened Sunni Arabs to defy Tehran, experts say
Kuwait recalled its ambassador to Iran, making the second Gulf Arab country to do so in less than two weeks, amid signs that the region’s Sunni governments are growing concerned about alleged Iranian influence in their domestic affairs and acting promptly and publicly to squelch it.
The Kuwaiti action, taken on Wednesday, came less than 24 hours after the country’s criminal court condemned two Iranians and a Kuwaiti to death following their conviction of spying for Iran. Two weeks ago, Bahrain ordered back its ambassador to Tehran and not long afterwards entered into a war of words with the leader of Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shiite movement allied with Iran,, and cut off air links with Lebanon.
“There is much fear of Iranian expansionism,” Ali Al-Saffar, an Iraq expert at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told The Media Line. “Whether this fear is true or perceived is debatable.”
U.S. Forces Germany to Stop Indian Oil Payments to Iran
India is exploring paying for crude oil it buys from Iran in rupee after the US forced Germany to stop routing payments through a Hamburg-based bank.
India in February had begun clearing past dues to Iran by making euro payments through German-based Europisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG ( EIH Bank). But EIH, which is owned by Iran, is a banned entity in the US and Washington used its influence on Germany to stop payments.
Egypt Extends Olive Branch to Iran, Seeks to Normalize Ties
Egypt extends olive branch to Iran; seeks to normalize ties Egypt’s new foreign minister Nabil Al-Arabi has said that his country also would like to turn over a new leaf with respect to Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Iran is a state in the region, and we have had long-term historical ties with it over the different periods,” al-Arabi told a press conference. “We will turn over a new leaf with all states, including Iran.”
Al-Arabi cautioned that restoring diplomatic ties will depend on the Iranian side.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has welcomed Egypt’s statements and said that better relations would improve security in the Middle East. He added that he hopes there will be “an expansion of relations” between Cairo and Tehran.
[...] Iran and Egypt have not had formal diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution when the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was given exile in Cairo by his friend Egyptian president Anwar Sadat.
A year before that, Iran ended diplomatic ties with Egypt when Sadat signed the Camp David peace treaty with Israel.
Following encouraging signals between Iran and Egypt to restore diplomatic relations, a senior member of the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) says a number of Iranian lawmakers are likely to pay a visit to Cairo.
US Embassy in Baghdad to Double Staff: This is NUTS! 16,000! Sixteen THOUSAND staff!
“We’ll be doubling our size if all of our plans go through and if we receive the money from Congress in 2011 and then again in 2012,” James Jeffrey, the US ambassador in Iraq, said.
He said the staff would increase “from 8,000 plus personnel that we have now to roughly double that by 2012,” adding that US forces would make up only a very small part of that number.
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen met with Turkish officials on Monday as an envoy of Moamer Kadhafi arrived in Ankara for talks on a possible ceasefire in conflict-torn Libya.
Turkish sources said the military has sent reinforcements along key points of the nation’s 600-kilometer border with Syria.
They said the reinforcements were sent after fighters and operatives of the Kurdish Workers Party were believed to have infiltrated Turkey from Syria.
Turkey has also reinforced troops along the border with Iraq, which harbors an estimated 3,000 PKK fighters in the Kandil mountains, Middle East Newsline reported.
U.S. agents are helping guide air strikes and determining the allegiances of rebel forces
Since the conflict in Libya began, Barack Obama has promised not to put U.S. “boots on the ground” in the country. CIA agents presumably sport some other kind of footwear, then, because there are dozens of U.S. spies already in Libya, working with rebel forces and attempting to learn more about them, with the ultimate aim of determining whether the U.S. should arm the rebellion. Weeks ago, Obama signed a secret “presidential finding” that authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to provide weapons to the anti-Gadhafi forces, but so far no weapons have been shipped, and officials in Washington continue to weigh the consequences of such a move. British Special Forces and agents with the MI6 intelligence agency are also operating inside Libya.
Egypt Supplies Libyan Insurgents With Weapons, Reports American Newspaper
Egypt has began, at Washington’s instigation, sending arms shipments to insurgents fighting against Gaddafi’s forces in Libya, said on Friday the Wall Street Journal.
This information was obtained from a member of the National Transitional Council which represents the insurgents and US officials, indicated the American newspaper.
The newspaper further noted that this is the first time a confirmation is obtained on sending arms including light rifles and ammunition from a foreign country to Libyan revolutionaries who have recently been defeated by government forces, much better equipped.
The US had expressed its disappointment at the unavailability of Arab countries to solve regional problems and critics against Western countries engaged to help settle these issues.
According to a US official quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the dispatch of Egyptian arms shipments started a few days ago. However, he stressed that Washington has not put in place a clear official policy on this score, even if it knows.
The official considered that the quantity of weapons as too small and too late to have influenced the balance of power in favor of the insurgents.
Crack special forces troops have been secretly pouring into Libya to back the rebellion against Colonel Gaddafi.
The elite troops moved in as the defiant tyrant vowed to “fight to the last man and woman” – and warned that “thousands will die” if the West intervenes.
[...] Intelligence sources have told us that post-Mubarak Egyptian troops have been allowed into Libya by Tunisian soldiers – showing increasing Arab-backing for the anti-Gaddafi revolt.
[...] Egypt’s new foreign minister, Nabil al-Arabi, told reporters in Cairo on Tuesday that he intends to reestablish ties with the regime of Iranian strongman Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Islamic overseers.
“We will turn over a new leaf with all states, including Iran,” said al-Arabi.
The minister said he was not yet sure if Egypt would be opening an embassy in Tehran anytime soon, but was keen to begin promoting friendly relations with the Islamic Republic.
Asked about Lebanon’s Hizballah terrorist militia, which more or less runs that country, al-Arabi indicated he had no problem with the group, and would not oppose official ties between Hizballah and Egypt.
“Hezbollah is part of Lebanon’s composition, and we see this as an internal matter,” he said. “If any party wishes to have ties with Egypt there will be nothing preventing us from talking.”
Egypt Stalls Reopening of Natural Gas Pipeline to Israel, Once again
Egyptian company Eastern Mediterranean Gas hints closure is political, asks U.S. government for help
Egyptian authorities refused to allow the reopening of the natural gas pipeline to Israel yesterday, which was closed a month ago after a terrorist bomb damaged part of the pipeline. Sources at the Egyptian company Eastern Mediterranean Gas, which supplies Israel with the Egyptian gas, hinted the issue is not actually technical − but political.
Some of the owners of EMG, which sells gas to Israel, asked the American and Thai governments to push the Egyptian government to resume the flow of gas to Israel. The reopening was scheduled for today, after three previous postponements.
Iran and Saudi Arabia Cold War Has Entered a New Era
Saudi Arabia fears Iranian influence – its Bahrain intervention has echoes of the Soviet reaction to the 1956 Hungary uprising.
Democracy is arriving in the Middle East, albeit slowly. But what is making progress at a much faster pace is the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Some described the fall of the Mubarak government, preceded by the fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia, as the Middle East’s Berlin Wall moment. The parallels with the cold war in Europe do not end there. There are also similarities between the entry of Soviet forces into Budapest in November 1956 to put down a popular uprising and the Saudi decision to send forces into Bahrain on 14 March this year.
The Soviets were worried that communist Hungary might fall into the hands of their western cold war adversaries, and thus felt it necessary to send their forces to put down any such initiative. The new Saudi strategy is based on similar calculations. They sent their forces into Bahrain because they felt that if the Shia uprising succeeded, it could turn the country from a Saudi friend into an ally of Iran.
The Saudi decision to risk the lives of its own soldiers in Bahrain is a sign of how seriously they view the situation. It is a departure from the old strategy, where the Saudis paid others to do their fighting for them – as with the Saudi financing of Saddam Hussein’s war against Iran between 1980 and 1988.
As far as the Saudis are concerned, the gloves are off and this means that the Middle East’s version of the cold war is intensifying.
The Iranian government is furious as well. Publications such as the pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News have accused the Saudis of creating a “bloodbath” in Bahrain. Others, such as the Tehran-based Asr Iran, have called for the creation of a Hezbollah movement in Bahrain. Meanwhile, the Association of Independent Student Unions in Iran has declared its readiness to go to Bahrain in order to confront government and Saudi forces there.
This fury is now turning into warnings. President Ahmadinejad has already cautioned the Saudi royal family that they should “learn from Saddam’s fate”.
The Saudis should now start preparing themselves for Iran’s response, because the Iranian government is not going to let this pass quietly.
Saudi Arabia Virtually Annexes Bahrain, Will Build a Missile-Naval Base Opposite Iran
Saudi Arabia ranges defenses against Iran, is willing to swap gesture favoring coalition operation in Libya for recognition of its takeover of Bahrain.
Israeli and Saudi Leaders in Moscow as Palestinians Ramp up Missile Strikes
[...] In Moscow, DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was working to set up a discreet meeting between two visitors – Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, failing which he will try and bring the Saudi Intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, who arrived with the foreign minister, together with the Israeli leader.
Muqrin has met Israeli leaders in secret before, including the former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
[...] DEBKAfile’s Jerusalem and Moscow sources note that this is the point at which Israel’s declining security situation becomes relevant to a possible Israeli-Saudi dialogue.
Neither Jerusalem nor Riyadh is at ease with the US role in favor of the popular uprisings against veteran Arab regimes – and most particularly the US-UK-French military intervention in Libya. Both find this policy detrimental to the national and security interests of America’s foremost Middle East allies.
They also share resentment for the benefits accrued from this wave of unrest by Tehran and the effect it has had to turn world attention away from its progress toward manufacturing a nuclear bomb.
The Saudi king and Israeli prime minster are apprehensive, on the strength of their intelligence input, that Iran will eventually seize control of the popular uprisings in Arab lands, especially Egypt.
Riyadh alone took a substantial precautionary step against this menace by sending military units into the Bahrain on Feb. 14 to pre-empt the Iranian-backed Shiite threat to King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and the tiny kingdom’s financial and oil assets at the back door of the rich eastern Saudi oil center.
Israel Holds Secret Talks With Russia in Bid to Thwart Recognition of Palestinian State
Isaac Molho, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s senior adviser and top negotiator on the Palestinian channel, made a secret trip to Moscow on Wednesday and met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The purpose of the visit was to dissuade Russia from supporting the European Union’s intention to present in two weeks’ time a plan for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders.
Facebook on Tuesday removed a page calling on Palestinians to take up arms against Israel, following a high-profile Israeli appeal to the popular social-networking site.
The page, titled “Third Palestinian Intifada,” had more than 350,000 fans before it was taken down. It called on Palestinians to take to the streets after Friday prayers on May 15 and begin an uprising. “Judgment Day will be brought upon us only once the Muslims have killed all of the Jews,” a quote from the page reads.
Facebook said the page began as a call for peaceful protest, even though it used the term “intifada,” which has been associated with violence in the past.
“However, after the publicity of the page, more comments deteriorated to direct calls for violence,” said Andrew Noyes, Facebook’s public policy communications manager. He said the creators of the page eventually made calls for violence as well.
“We monitor pages that are reported to us and when they degrade to direct calls for violence or expressions of hate — as occurred in this case — we have and will continue to take them down.”
In a letter last week to Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Israeli Cabinet Minister Yuli Edelstein said the page included “wild incitement.” Edelstein applauded Facebook for removing the page, saying he hoped the action would be an example to others and deter similar postings in the future.
Military Intelligence Monitoring Foreign Left-Wing Organizations
Military Intelligence is collecting information about left-wing organizations abroad that the army sees as aiming to delegitimize Israel, according to senior Israeli officials and Israel Defense Forces officers.
Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Saud al-Faisal on Thursday will arrive in Ankara, reported the website of CNN Turk TV channel, which links the visit to Bahrain events.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet al-Faisal after returning from Russia. According to the report, the foreign minister of Turkey, Ahmet Davutoglu will also attend the meeting.
On Wednesday, Davutoglu spoke with foreign ministers of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain by phone, Anadolu Agency reported.
Officials said that Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi called Davutoglu, stating that Davutoglu and Salehi discussed “developments in the region”.
Davutoglu called foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and phone conversations mainly focused on developments in Bahrain, officials said.
Anti-government protests began in Manama, Bahrain in February. Demonstrators have been demanding the ouster of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa as well as constitutional reforms, with hundreds camping out peacefully in the capital’s Pearl Square since February 14th.
Bahraini forces imposed a curfew and started to intervene in the protesting group on Wednesday. At least six people were reported to have been killed in Manama during attacks by Bahraini forces against the anti-government protesters in the capital. In response to this, Iran recalled its ambassador from Bahrain.
Troops from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states were dispatched to Bahrain at the country’s government’s request to help quell the uprising by majority Shiite Muslims against the Sunni leadership.
Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmad Al-Khalifa will visit Turkey on Tuesday to discuss unrest in his country sparked by a Shiite-led opposition movement, Turkey’s foreign minister said, AFP reports.
Turmoil in the Gulf kingdom “could produce a potential to create an international conflict… and spread Shiite-Sunni tensions across the region,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in an interview with CNN Turk television Monday.
Turkey is in contact also with Saudi Arabia and Iran to ease tensions, he said.
“On the one side, we are advising Bahrain to put in practice democratisation reforms as soon as possible, and on the other side we are advising Iran, Saudi Arabia and the other related parties to show restraint,” he added.
Tension has escalated between Gulf states and Iran as Tehran condemned the deployment of Saudi-led Gulf troops in Bahrain last week, followed by a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in the Shiite-majority country.
The Turkish authorities have seized rifles on a Syria-bound Iranian plane, grounded since the weekend, and questioned its seven-man crew, police and judicial sources said Tuesday.
The cargo plane, a civilian Ilyushin, was ordered to land in Diyarbakir, in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, on Saturday night on suspicion that it had military or illicit cargo on board.
The plane had declared a cargo of spare car parts, but the inspection resulted also in the discovery of a box containing automatic rifles, a police source told AFP, without providing further details on the guns.
The crew was taken to a police station for questioning and argued that the weapons were on board as part of routine security measures, declining to give additional information.
Turkey to UN: We Seized illegal Iran Arms Shipment en Route to Syria
Turkey has informed a UN Security Council panel that it seized a cache of weapons Iran was attempting to export in breach of a UN arms embargo, according to a document obtained by Reuters on Thursday.
Security Council diplomats said the report of the seizure from an Iranian cargo plane reflected positively on Turkey, which some U.S. and European officials say has taken a lax approach to implementing international sanctions against Iranian financial institutions.
The report to the council’s Iran sanctions committee, which oversees compliance with the four rounds of punitive steps the 15-nation body has imposed on Iran over its nuclear program, said a March 21 inspection turned up the weapons, which were listed as “auto spare parts” on the plane’s documents.
The plane was bound for Aleppo, Syria, and was given permission to pass through Turkish airspace provided it made a “technical stop” at Diyarbakir airport.
Turkey has said it will help with distributing humanitarian aid to Libya and has suggested it could play a part in mediating between rebels and the government of Muammar Gaddafi.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s prime minister, said Turkey would take over the running of Benghazi airport to take responsibility for distributing humanitarian aid from the rebel-held eastern city.
The AFP news agency also quoted an official as saying Turkey was responding to a request from fighters in Libya, saying civilian and technical personnel would be sent out.
Ankara has already sent a ferry carrying a medical team, two ambulances and two tonnes of medical supplies to Libya in an attempt to help treat wounded people.
Cemil Cicek, the deputy prime minister, said Turkey was planning to take around 450 injured people from the rebel-held port of Misurata to Turkey for treatment.
Last week, the Turkish parliament also approved the dispatch of a naval force to Libyan waters as the government moved reluctantly to join the military campaign in the north African country.
Turkish PM Cancels Brussels Trip amid Criticisms Over Press Freedom
The Turkish prime minister has canceled his April 1 trip to Brussels to avoid criticisms from EU officials over the deterioration of press freedom, the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review has learned from diplomatic sources.
[...] Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was scheduled to meet with top EU officials, including Herman van Rompuy, president of the EU Council, and Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission. A joint press conference was also expected during the Brussels talks.
Turkey’s Erdogan in First Visit to Iraq Kurd Region
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was welcomed on Tuesday as the first Turkish leader to visit Iraq’s Kurdish region, on a trip laden with significance born of Turkey’s own history of conflict with its Kurdish minority.
Turkey Hosts Military Exercise with Pakistani, Afghan Troops
Turkey has hosted joint “urban warfare” exercises with troops from Afghanistan and Pakistan, comprising sniper and anti-tank units from the three countries.
The number of troops was small — apparently 128 — but the meaning of the exercise was more political than operational. Turkey has long been NATO’s point of contact for relations with Pakistan, and Washington and Brussels have been trying to get Turkey to help build relations between the militaries of Afghanistan and Pakistan. So this exercise — agreed upon at a summit between the three countries in December — is a step in that direction.
Signs of an Axis Shift in EU’s Trust in Turkey’s Ruling Party
Trust in Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, appears to be diminishing among European circles due to growing concerns about fundamental freedoms.
[...] The views of EU institutions vis-a-vis Turkey have seen a clear shift, according to Demir Murat Seyrek, a senior policy adviser for the European Foundation for Democracy.
After Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, a wave of unprecedented anti-regime protests has now hit Syria, a country known for its iron grip on security matters.
[...] Daraa, a southern town that is home to large tribal families, has been the focal point of the rallies, the latest in a string of uprisings against long-running autocratic regimes across the Arab world.
Syria has deployed security forces to the northern city of Latakia after violent protests left at least 12 people dead and more than 150 injured amid calls for reform.
[...] Syrian authorities have accused “armed groups” of seeking to incite sectarian strife in the city, which has seen violent clashes between pro-reform protesters, security forces and government supporters.
IDF: Syria May Provoke Israel to Distract from Domestic Unrest
[...] The IDF is also preparing for the possibility that Damascus might use Hezbollah or other militant organizations in Lebanon to heat up that front to divert attention from events in Syria.
A bomb struck a crowded bus stop in central Jerusalem Wednesday, killing one woman and wounding more than 20 other people in what authorities said was the first major Palestinian militant attack in the city in several years.
The bombing brought back memories of the second Palestinian uprising last decade, a period in which hundreds of Israelis were killed by suicide bombings in Jerusalem and other major cities.
Lebanon: Estonian Tourists Kidnapped in Bekaa Valley
Seven Estonian tourists have been kidnapped while cycling in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
The army has now begun searching for the group, who had entered Lebanon legally from Syria earlier in the day.
They were in the town of Zahle when they were seized by men in a car and two vans.
It is not clear whether the kidnapping is politically motivated. The Bekaa Valley is a stronghold of the Islamist Hezbollah movement.
During Lebanon’s civil war, at least 88 foreigners were taken hostage between 1984 and 1990, including the journalist John McCarthy and peace envoy Terry Waite.
The Bekaa Valley is known for lawlessness, drug trafficking and feuds between the powerful clans which control the region’s hashish plantations.
The tourists’ abandoned bicycles were found near the industrial complex in Zahle where they were abducted.
A bomb exploded Sunday at a church in the eastern town of Zahle, causing severe damage but injuring no one, in an act denounced by politicians and religious leaders as an attack on Lebanon’s stability.
A security source told The Daily Star that a device containing 2 kilograms of TNT exploded inside Saidat al-Najat church at 4.15 a.m. Sunday morning, in a detonation performed via cellphone.
“This is the first time this kind of bomb has been used [in Lebanon], whereby the individual can detonate the bomb from anywhere,” the source said.
Israel Releases Map of Hezbollah Bunkers in Lebanon
Washington Post obtains map detailing bunkers, arms caches, surveillance sites in south Lebanon. IDF official: We want to show world that Shiite group has turned villages into fighting zones.
Syria Releases Egyptian-American Accused of Espionage
Syrian authorities have released an Egyptian-American man one week after detaining him on espionage concerns and showing him in what was billed as a televised confession on state TV.
Muhammad Radwan was released to the Egyptian Embassy in Damascus on Friday.
U.S. Training Quietly Nurtured Young Arab Democrats
[...] And when 2011′s winter of discontent exploded into a pro-democracy storm in Tunisia and then Egypt, opposition activist Bilal Diab broke away from his six-month “young leaders school” and its imported instructors, and put his new skills to use among the protest tents of Cairo’s Tahrir Square.
“It helped us organize the revolution,” Diab, 23, said of his made-in-America training. “People were scattered, but we had learned how to bring them together and we did, and when we opened our tent we announced formation of the Revolution Youth Union.”
[...] That success, meanwhile, points up a core paradox: A U.S. government that long stood by Mubarak and other Arab leaders as steadfast allies was, at the same time, financing programs that ultimately contributed to his and potentially others’ downfall.
[...] “One of the beauties of the U.S. system is that there are many, many entry points in many centers of power, and they can have conflicting policies.”
[...] National Endowment money, $100-million-plus a year, is at work in more than 90 countries worldwide. But it’s the USAID grants, from an $800 million budget for developing “political competition” and “civil society” in 67 nations, that have proved vital to activists in a half-dozen Arab lands, from Morocco to Yemen. Some $104 million was requested for them in the proposed 2011 budget.
[...] Today General Enan, a favorite of the American military, is the second in command among the group of generals moving toward some form of democracy in Egypt. In meetings of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, he sits to the right of its leader, the 75-year-old defense minister, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, and is considered his potential successor. In the meantime, American officials say, General Enan, 63, has become a crucial link for the United States as it navigates the rocky course ahead with Cairo.
If he is not yet the Pentagon’s man in Egypt, many hope he will be.
[...] Some experts on the Egyptian military have suggested that General Enan could be a candidate, a proposal swiftly dismissed by Pentagon officials and the Egyptian military. “The Supreme Council will not field a candidate from one of their own,” an Egyptian military official said in a rare interview on Friday in Washington. The official requested anonymity under ground rules imposed by the Egyptian government.
No one disputes, though, that General Enan will play a central role in Egypt’s future government, more likely from behind the scenes, where the country’s powerful and traditionally secretive armed forces are still most comfortable. There, out of sight of most Egyptians, they run national security policy and operate lucrative businesses as part of a parallel “Military Inc.” economy that produces electronics, household appliances, clothing and food.
U.S.-Saudi Tensions Intensify With Mideast Turmoil
[...] Saudi officials have made no secret of their deep displeasure with how President Obama handled the ouster of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, charging Washington with abandoning a longtime ally. They show little patience with American messages about embracing what Mr. Obama calls “universal values,” including peaceful protests.
When Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton were forced to cancel visits to the kingdom in recent days, American officials were left wondering whether the cause was King Abdullah’s frail health — or his pique at the United States.
“They’re not in a mode for listening,” said one senior administration official, referring to the American exchanges with Saudi officials over the past two months about the need to get ahead of the protests that have engulfed other Arab states, including two of Saudi Arabia’s neighbors, Bahrain and Yemen.
A Saudi-led military force crossed into Bahrain on Monday to prop up the monarchy against widening demonstrations, launching the first cross-border military operation to quell unrest since the Arab world’s rebellions began in December.
[...] Gulf leaders are also concerned that political gains by Bahrain’s Shiites might give Shiite Iran a stepping stone to its arch-rival Saudi Arabia, connected to Bahrain by a wide causeway.
Instead, the Saudis and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council sent forces the other way, deploying about 1,000 troops by land and air and cementing the entire six-nation alliance to the fate of Bahrain’s rulers, who are key U.S. allies as hosts of the American Navy’s 5th Fleet.
Iran’s Arming of Afghan Insurgents Hits Lethal Level
British Foreign Minister William Hague has lashed out at Iran after extensive tests verified without a doubt that 122 mm rockets intercepted by the British Special Air Services in Southern Afghanistan were being shipped by Iran to the Taliban there. “This is a really significant indication of Iranian support for the insurgency,” said one British military source
Israeli Military Believes Experts from Iran, Hezbollah Training Gaza Militants
[...] Hamas, an anti-Israel group backed by Iran and Syria, took control of Gaza by force in June 2007.
[...] Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, frequently send in experts to train Hamas forces, crossing through illicit tunnels on the Gaza-Egypt border that are also used to smuggle in weapons. Some foreign experts are even stationed in Gaza.
Lebanon Pro-Western Opposition Protests Against Hezbollah Arms
Tens of thousands of supporters of outgoing Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri gathered in Beirut on Sunday to protest the weapons arsenal held by the rival Shiite movement Hezbollah.
In a rally which marked the 2005 uprising that ended Syria’s 30-year domination of Lebanon.
[...] The militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, was the only Lebanese political faction allowed to keep its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war. The group argues it needs them to defend Lebanon from possible Israeli attacks.
Israel Finally Moving to Define National Policy on Iran
[...] Recently, activists in the United States and Germany, especially Stop the Bomb, have increased pressure on Angela Merkel’s government to close the Hamburg-based European-Iranian trade bank EIH. The bank, founded in 1971 during the shah’s rule, has for years functioned as Iran’s main financial arm in Europe to fund its undercover activities. It is considered a German bank and is supervised by Germany’s central bank, but it is owned by four large banks, all of them owned by the Iranian government.
Lebanon Lifts Banking Secrecy on 23 Cases Involved in Money Laundering
Report comes as U.S. scrutinizing Lebanese banks for possible links to terrorist financing.
Lebanon lifted the banking secrecy on 23 accounts involved in money laundering, financial embezzlement and terrorist funding in 2010, according to a report by the Special Investigation Commission (SIC).
[...] The U.S. Treasury Feb. 10 accused the Lebanese-Canadian Bank of money laundering in connection with Hezbollah, which is labeled by Washington as a terrorist group.
Central Bank governor Riad Salameh immediately left to Washington and held urgent talks with officials from the U.S. Treasury.
Salameh, who is keen to protect the reputation of the Lebanese banks, persuaded the management of the Lebanese-Canadian Bank to sell its entire stake to a major Lebanese bank to protect customers’ deposits.
Israeli Television : Third War with Hizbullah Will Include 230 Villages South of Awali River
Israeli Channel Ten television broadcast preliminary images of what it claimed was a base in Syria where Hizbullah stored its rockets. The report said: “Hizbullah is arming itself at an unprecedented rate under the misleading cover of calm in the North.”
The base, located in Adra in Syria, lies 50 kilometers east of Damascus and serves as an “emergency storage unit for Hizbullah in Syria or Hizbullah’s special region in the heart of Syria.”
These rockets are transported on a daily basis from Adra to northern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and the South, through smuggling routes.
“The international community is aware of these images,” the report stressed.
It also addressed the Iranian deputy foreign minister’s recent meeting to Lebanon, which it said was aimed at inspecting the “Iranian unit that it deployed at Lebanon’s border with Israel.”
“In fact, the official arrived to make sure that Hizbullah is not wasting the gifts and funds Iran has invested in Lebanon. They want all matters to be ready should Iran’s nuclear facilities be attacked,” it continued.
Given the extent of smuggling and the number of rockets being delivered, some of which have a range of 300 kilometers, then an attack by the Israeli army would include 230 villages south of the Awali River North of Sidon, and not just 180 villages as had previously been discussed, said the report.
Iran’s Majlis (parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani says power equations in the region are changing in favor of resistance against Israel.
In a meeting with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Naji Otri on Thursday, Larijani described the recent popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa as a good opportunity for “those countries [which are] in the resistance front against Israel and its arrogant supporters.”
[...] The Iranian lawmaker stressed the strategic importance of cooperation among Iran, Syria, Turkey and Iraq for the whole region.
Larijani accused foreign powers of “taking advantage of the region’s current situation” and said, “The vigilance of regional nations will prevent the plots devised by international powers to regain their hegemony in the region.”
Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq have agreed to issue joint visas in an effort to boost their tourism sectors, local media reported on Monday (March 7th). The measure, proposed by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, would cut tourist costs, allowing them to visit all four countries with one visa. The new document will be called “Shamgen”, from “Sham”, the Arab name for Syria.
China to Help Iran Build World’s Tallest Dam – Tehran
China signed a $2 billion contract with Iran to build the world’s tallest dam in the Islamic state, the Iranian energy minister was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency.
[...] Iran has been hit by foreign sanctions and Western firms are wary of investing in the Islamic Republic for fear of sanctions. State-owned Asian firms are less susceptible to Western pressure to stay away from the Iranian market.
Leader’s Advisor Warns of Iran’s Crushing Response to Aggressors
A senior advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution warned enemies of Iran’s crushing response to any possible action against the country, adding that Iran will chase and punish invaders beyond the country’s borders.
[...] Speculation that Israel could bomb Iran mounted since a big Israeli air drill last year. In the first week of June, 2008, 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters reportedly took part in an exercise over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece, which was interpreted as a dress rehearsal for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear installations.
Iran has, in return, warned that it would target Israel and the US as well as their worldwide interests in case it comes under attack by either country.
Iran has also warned it could close the strategic Strait of Hormoz if it became the target of a military attack over its nuclear program.
Strait of Hormoz, the entrance to the strategic Persian Gulf waterway, is a major oil shipping route.
On February 24 a majority in the Cyprus parliament voted for the country to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Partnership for Peace program, a transitional mechanism employed to bring twelve Eastern European nations into the U.S.-dominated military bloc from 1999-2009: The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia. Macedonia would have become a full member of the Alliance in 2009 along with the last two except for the lingering name dispute with Greece.
Cyprus is the only member of the 27-nation European Union that is not either in NATO or the Partnership for Peace (PfP), the only EU member that did not need to join NATO or be on its doorstep in order to be accepted, and the only European nation (excluding the microstates of Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City) that is free of NATO entanglements. Every other nation on the continent and island state in the Mediterranean Sea is a member of NATO or the PfP. (NATO still lists Russia as a member of the second and since last November’s NATO summit in Portugal it has been active again in the NATO-Russia Council.)
[...] Cyprus was split into northern ethnic Turkish and southern Greek sections after the Turkish military invasion of 1974, although only Turkey recognizes the northern entity.
Britain, France and the United States have dispatched hundreds of military advisors to Libya to set up military bases in the country’s oil-rich east, reports say.
Several Libyan diplomats have been quoted by news outlets as saying these forces are setting up bases in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Tobruk — the two oil-rich cities that have been liberated by the opposition forces.
British and US special forces entered Libyan port cities of Benghazi and Toburk on February 23 and 24.
David Cameron’s Secret Talks With Tony Blair Over Libya Crisis
David Cameron has been secretly consulting Tony Blair about Libya despite publicly criticising his links with Colonel Gaddafi.
Senior officials say the Prime Minister has held at least two conversations in the past fortnight with the former Labour premier, now a Middle East peace envoy.
Mr Cameron has consulted Mr Blair about the Libyan dictator’s state of mind and sought advice about how to make him quit.
Members of the SAS have been captured by anti-government troops in Libya, according to a report.
The Sunday Times has claimed that rebels in the troubled North African state captured the eight elite soldiers as they escorted a British diplomat in a mission to establish a dialogue with opposition fighters.
According to the newspaper, the SAS men were armed but travelling in plain clothes and were seized as they accompanied the official in eastern Libya, before being taken to Benghazi for interrogation.
[...] It is thought that members of the anti-Gaddafi movement are unhappy that British special forces were operating in the country, despite the diplomatic offer of assistance, as has been perceived as Western interference.
[...] In a statement, the Ministry of Defence said: “We neither confirm nor deny the story and we do not comment on the special forces.”
Libya : Captured Dutch Marines, Seized Helicopter Shown on State TV
Libyan state TV has aired footage of three detained Dutch marines who were captured along with their helicopter by forces loyal to leader Moammar Kadafi near the Kadafi-stronghold of Sirte on Sunday as they reportedly were carrying out a mission to evacuate two Europeans.
The Dutch Defense Ministry insists the crew was simply carrying out a “consular evacuation” — a claim that Libya seems to find dubious.
Preparing for “Operation Libya”: The Pentagon is “Repositioning” its Naval and Air Forces
“The United States is moving naval and air forces in the region” to “prepare the full range of options” in the confrontation with Libya: Pentagon spokesperson Col. Dave Lapan of the Marines made this announcement yesterday, March 1. He then said that “It was President Obama who asked the military to prepare for these options,” because the situation in Libya is getting worse. The military then began “the planning and preparation” phase for an intervention in Libya. Pentagon planners are working on several specific plans, depending on how the “repositioning of forces” begins so as to have maximum flexibility to implement any option.
China Insists Libyan Sovereignty Must Be Respected
China on Thursday stressed the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Libya and also promoted a peaceful solution to the crisis in that country.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu also said that an important principle for China was that the UN Security Council should the views of Arab and African nations.
She said Beijing hopes that all Libyan sectors can work together to restore order as soon as possible.
Regarding protests in Bahrain, she said the Chinese government welcomes the efforts of authorities with a view to reducing tension through dialogue.
All Middle Eastern nations are friends of China, she said, noting that her country had developed friendly relations and cooperation with these countries based on equality and mutual respect and benefit.
In First, Israel Blocks Palestinian Anti-Tank Rocket
For the first time, an Israeli system has intercepted an enemy missile fired toward a main battle tank.
[...] “For the first time during operational activity, the Trophy system, designed to actively protect against anti-tank missiles, identified, alerted and intercepted the missile.”
[...] The military did not identify the Palestinian anti-tank missile but said its crew was tracked and struck in counter-fire.
[...] In December, Hamas fired a Russian-origin AT-14 Kornet anti-tank missile that penetrated the Merkava Mk-4. The Hamas operation sparked an Army effort to install Trophy on all Merkavas deployed along the Gaza border.
After the overthrow of a neighboring multi-year ruler of Egypt Hosni Mubarak, Israel has created rapid reaction forces in case the situation in Judea and Samaria gets out of control. It enhanced the guard of a number of military and civilian targets inside the country and abroad.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak inspected the military units stationed near the northern border and made a number of important statements. New Israeli war preparations are consistent with the anxiety that has seized the Middle East in recent weeks.
Recently Benny Ganz was appointed the new Chief of General Staff of Israel. Just like his predecessor, he had a career as a combat officer. One of his first decisions in his new position was separating of Haifa and a number of settlements located in the north of the country in a separate military district.
This is not a formal change in the structure, but an important step aimed at strengthening of the defense of the North. In summer of 2006, it was Haifa and Kiryat Shmona that suffered the most from the attacks of the radical Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah.
During a visit to battalion 932 “Granit” of the Infantry Brigade of IDF, Ehud Barak stated the possibility of a new invasion to Lebanon. This measure can be undertaken by the Israeli army in the event of another attack of Hezbollah.
According to Benny Ganz, Israel is preparing for major military operations in the face of the external threat. Despite the requirement under the UN resolution 1701, the Lebanese resistance movement not only has failed to disarm, but also significantly strengthened its position.
Iran Contacting Arab Opposition Movements : Clinton
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday that Iran is directly or indirectly communicating with opposition groups in Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen in a bid to shape events there.
[...] They are doing everything they can to influence the outcomes in these places,” Clinton told the Senate Appropriations Committee.
“They are using Hezbollah… to communicate with counterparts… in (the Palestinian movement) Hamas who then in turn communicate with counterparts in Egypt.”
“We know that they are reaching out to the opposition in Bahrain. We know that the Iranians are very much involved in the opposition movements in Yemen.”
“So either directly or through proxies, they are constantly trying to influence events. They have a very active diplomatic foreign policy outreach.”
Gates on Urgent Mission to Cairo as Military Rulers Lose Grip
President Barack Obama Saturday, March 5, asked Defense Secretary Robert Gates to set out for Cairo without delay on an emergency mission as the unrest in Egypt veered out of control, DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report from Washington. Friday night, thousands of protesters seized control of the headquarters Egyptian security police in Alexandria, Cairo and the nearby 6 of October town, shutting down its operations across the country.
In the last hours, information reaching Washington indicated that control was slipping out of the hands of the Egyptian military junta ruling the country since Hosni Mubarak’s overthrow; anti-American elements energized by Iran appeared to have strengthened their hold on the protest movement, causing deep concern in the White House.
Commander : Navy to Continue Deployment of Warships in Foreign Waters
Commander of Iran’s Navy Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari on Saturday praised an Iranian flotilla of warships dispatched to the Mediterranean Sea and the Syrian coasts for their success in accomplishing their long-term mission, and announced that the Navy will continue similar missions in future.
U.S. to Send Warship to Mediterranean to Support Europe Defense Shield
In a bid to protect Europe from possible Iranian missile strikes, the United States military is considering sending a warship to the Mediterranean next week.
Italian Warship Sails for Anti-Piracy Mission in Indian Ocean
An Italian warship sailed to the Indian Ocean on Tuesday to take part in the international anti-piracy mission.
The Atalanta mission is part of an EU joint task force operation aimed at patrolling the Indian Ocean against pirates and escorting the UN World Food Program and the African Union humanitarian relief ships to Somalia, according to a statement by the Italian Navy.
Indian Vessel, Nine Crew-Members Detained in Iran Since Feb 16
An Indian vessel ‘MVS Ramban’ carrying livestock, alongwith its nine crew members has been detained by the Iranian authorities for over two weeks now, the Salaya Sailing Vessel Owner’s Association in the district said on Saturday.
[...] “The Iran Navy took the vessel to Chabahar Navy port. They have kept two crew members on board, while other seven members have been sent to jail.”
[...] This is the first time in the recent history that a vessel from Gujarat has been detained by Iran Navy.
Indian Army Chief to Visit U.S. to Enhance Defence Cooperation
In the light of enhanced defence cooperation between India and the United States, over the last five years, Indian Army Chief, General VK Singh will visit the United States from March 7.
“Airstrikes in Libya Did Not Take Place” – Russian Military
The reports of Libya mobilizing its air force against its own people spread quickly around the world. However, Russia’s military chiefs say they have been monitoring from space – and the pictures tell a different story.
According to Al Jazeera and BBC, on February 22 Libyan government inflicted airstrikes on Benghazi – the country’s largest city – and on the capital Tripoli. However, the Russian military, monitoring the unrest via satellite from the very beginning, says nothing of the sort was going on on the ground.
At this point, the Russian military is saying that, as far as they are concerned, the attacks some media were reporting have never occurred.
The same sources in Russia’s military establishment say they are also monitoring the situation around Libya’s oil pumping facilities.
All laws necessary for the launch of a nuclear power plant construction program in Poland are to be adopted by Parliament before the end of June, reports Rzeczpospolita.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has confirmed Washington’s plans to deploy missile defenses and Air Force units in Poland.
“As was announced by our two presidents in December, we plan to establish a new permanent U.S. air detachment in Poland, build missile defenses in Poland, and as agreed at the NATO summit, develop a contingency plan in the region,” Clinton told journalists ahead of talks with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in Washington.
Wikileaks published U.S. cables in late 2010 showing that NATO was drawing up a plan on the protection of Estonia, Lithuania and Poland from external threats on a request from the United States and Germany.
The Guardian reported that under the plan, reportedly approved by Clinton, the United States, Britain, Germany and Poland would deploy troops in the region in case of a military aggression against the Baltic States or Poland itself.
According to the British newspaper, NATO members approved the draft plan during the alliance’s summit in Lisbon in November 2010.
In 2009, the United States decided to deploy several F-16 fighter jets and Hercules transport aircraft in Poland. Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich has said the United States was also planning to deploy Patriot missile defense systems in Poland at a base just 100 kilometers from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Russia Election Risks Causing Capital Flight – Finance Minister
Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Thursday that a perception of political risk leading up to the 2012 presidential election was causing capital to flee the country, a factor which battered the ruble in the second half of last year.
Russia saw over $30 billion in capital outflows last year, more than four times the amount forecast by the central bank.
Islamist Leader Calls for Jihad by Russian Muslims
Islamist rebel leader Doku Umarov called on Muslims throughout Russia to wage jihad (holy war) against the state, in a video posted on websites on Thursday.
A decade after federal forces drove separatists out of power in the second war in Chechnya, the Kremlin is struggling to contain an Islamist insurgency throughout the North Caucasus, where rebels want to create a separate Islamic state.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Rejects No-Fly Zone for Libya
Russia’s top diplomat ruled out the idea of creating a no-fly zone over Libya on Tuesday as embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi unleashed bombing raids, special forces and army troops in a desperate bid to retain power.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the idea of imposing limits on Libyan air space as “superfluous” and said world powers must instead focus on fully using the sanctions that the U.N. Security Council approved over the weekend.
Russia’s Lavrov Urges Anti-terror Cooperation With British Intelligence
[...] Lavrov urged cooperation against terrorism and said he had discussed the issue with British Foreign Secretary William Hague during his visit to London last month.
[...] He said Britain should act first on un-freezing contacts with Russia’s Federal Security Service.
Tensions remain high after Britain expelled a Russian diplomat from London over allegations of spying in December. The Russian authorities responded in kind.
Mideast Unrest Puts U.S. Military Access in Jeopardy
Popular unrest sweeping the Middle East highlights the US military’s reliance on Arab regimes that offer privileged access to airfields and ports from Cairo to Qatar.
The military’s dominant role in the region hinges on a web of agreements with friendly Arab states that allow American forces to patrol oil shipping routes in the Gulf, target Islamist militants and keep a watchful eye on arch-foe Iran.
Roughly 27,000 US forces are deployed at an array of bases and sites throughout the Gulf, along with a 50,000-strong contingent in Iraq and thousands more aboard naval ships, a US military official told AFP.
Major air fields in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, a large base in Kuwait and the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain serve as key points in an arc around Iran, ensuring American forces can move swiftly with heavy firepower.
In Bahrain, where security forces have cracked down on street protests after popular revolts ousted leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, about 4,000 Americans are stationed as part of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters.
With a flotilla of aircraft carriers, destroyers and amphibious ships at its disposal, the Fifth Fleet oversees an area spanning the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
The Pentagon on Friday played down the impact of the unrest in Bahrain and elsewhere, saying the violence had not disrupted the naval headquarters or other bases.
Former officials say losing the headquarters in Bahrain would be a setback but not a catastrophe, as the Navy could move the command post elsewhere.
Mullen Mideast Trip Shows U.S. “Worry” : Iran General
A trip to the Middle East by the top US military officer Mike Mullen shows the “deep worry” of Washington when it comes to the fate of its forces in the region, the top Iranian general said Sunday.
“The hasty trip of Mike Mullen shows the deep worry regarding the fate of American forces stationed in the region,” armed forces chief of staff General Hassan Firouzabadi said in a statement.
Calling for the withdrawal of US forces from the region, Firouzabadi said that “any kind of military operation will fail to have an effect on the Muslim peoples’ revolution which is being done to get rid of American oppression.”
He said the revolts rocking longstanding Western-backed regimes around the Arab world would result in the troops’ “quick exit”.
Mullen was in the Middle East last week on a tour during which he accused Iran of fomenting instability in the region, but said Tehran was not behind the popular protests in several regional countries.
Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari stressed the significance of mutual cooperation between Tehran and Damascus, specially in naval fields, and called for the implementation of agreements already held by the two strategic allies.
“Definitely, the good ties between the two friendly and brotherly countries of Iran and Syria and their use of each other’s experiences would strengthen the two states, specially in naval fields,” stated Sayyari, who is in Syria at the head of a high-ranking military delegation.
He made the remarks in a meeting with the Syrian Army’s lieutenant commander, chief of staff and Defense Minister Lt. General Ali Habib.
[...] Adm. Habibollah Sayyari met with Syria’s defense minister and military chief Sunday, just days after Iran’s first show of naval power in the Mediterranean in decades. Two Iranian warships reached Syria last week after passing through the Suez Canal in the first such trip since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Iran’s military presence in the Mediterranean has raised alarm in Israel as political turmoil reshapes the region. Iran has close ties with Syria and the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah group in Lebanon.
The official news agency IRNA say Sayyari and the Syrian military officials discussed the need for cooperation between the navies of the two countries, including training.
Israel saw the Iranian warships’ passage as a provocation. The country’s officials refused to comment, but earlier in the week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he viewed the move “with gravity.”
The canal linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean enables ships to avoid a lengthy sail around Africa. The Iranian ships were headed for a training mission in Syria. The country has been a close ally of Iran’s hard-line Islamic rulers and an arch foe of Israel. In Syria, officials at the Iranian embassy said it would mark the first time in years that Iranian naval vessels dock in a Syrian port.
Russia vowed Saturday to fulfil its contract to supply Syria with cruise missiles despite the turmoil shaking the Arab world and Israel’s furious condemnation of the deal.
“The contract is in the implementation stage,” news agencies quoted Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov as saying. Russia initially agreed to send a large shipment of anti-ship Yakhont cruise missiles to Syria in 2007 under the terms of a controversial deal that was only disclosed by Serdyukov in September 2010.
The revelation infuriated both Israel and the United States and there had been speculation that Russia would decide to tear up the contract amid the current turmoil plaguing north Africa and the Middle East.
The Israeli ambassador to Moscow confirmed that the state was primarily worried the missiles would end up in the hands of the Shiite Hezbollah movement that receives strong backing from Syria.
Iran’s intelligence minister says authorities have arrested an Iranian who he says was working with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in connection with recent anti-government protests in Tehran.
Heidar Moslehi told state TV Thursday that the individual was using informants to collect information about the unrest to submit to the CIA.
He said the person was arrested on February 14 after a period of surveillance. That day, Iran’s opposition held its largest protest rally in more than a year, with two people killed in clashes.
Iran routinely blames the United States and Israel for alleged interference in Iranian affairs. Both nations deny meddling.
Saudi Arabia Witnesses First Signs of Unrest as ‘Day of Rage’ Planned for March 11th
The popular uprisings across the Middle East are sparking similar unrest in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with youth groups and workers in that country now calling for a “Day of Rage” demonstration in the capital, Riyadh, on March 11.
Already there have been protests last week in the city of Qatif and other towns in the country’s oil-rich Eastern Province demanding, among things, the release of political prisoners and a raft of social reforms. There are also reports of prominent Shia clerics being detained by the Saudi Sunni authorities, and security forces mobilizing in anticipation of further protests.
Al Jazeera Enrages Dictators, Wins Global Viewers With Coverage of Unrest
“Don’t believe those misleading dog stations,” Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi said this week. He wasn’t referring to CNN or the BBC.
Arab-owned television channels Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya have been denounced by targets of the Middle Eastern revolts, showing they’ve played a pivotal role in the uprisings that have shaken countries from Tunisia and Egypt to Libya and Yemen. Qaddafi called them the “biggest enemy.” In Egypt, Al Jazeera’s Cairo bureau was shut down at the start of rallies that led to the ouster of 82-year-old president Hosni Mubarak.
Beaming images of the protests and interviewing key participants, Al Jazeera in particular has moved from being perceived as a Middle Eastern talk shop to a catalyst for change. Although the Arabic- and English-language broadcaster has sometimes acted like a participant rather than an observer of the uprisings, it is winning praise in Europe and the U.S., which may help it extend its global reach.
Is Al Jazeera trying to bring down the Palestinian Authority?
“Al Jazeera is the enemy,” charged former Israeli ambassador to Cairo, Zvi Mazel, about the most widely viewed television channel in the Middle East whose pictures of the protests in Cairo have been seen all over. “Al Jazeera is serving Zionist interests and it invites Israeli representatives to its studios,” claimed the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al Quds al-Arabi, which is owned by the family of the Qatari ruler, some two years ago.
“Al Jazeera has decided to bring down the Palestinian Authority,” moaned Israeli commentators while [Palestinian chief negotiator] Saeb Erekat complained that “Al Jazeera is waging a war against [Palestinian Authority head] Mahmoud Abbas.”
Al Jazeera is investigating reports of interference with its reception in several countries across the Middle East on 19 February, just a day after it claimed its satellite signal had been jammed once again.
“We are not sure of the cause, but we are looking into it,” a spokesman for the Qatar-based rolling news network told Reuters.
Bahrain’s King Hamad Concerned About Qatar, GCC Unity
[...] King Hamad of Bahrain expressed concern about Qatari policy toward Iran and al Qaeda in an hour-long conversation with the Ambassador. He spoke of strong disagreements among GCC leaders during their December summit in Kuwait, which troubled him. He said his focus would be to “look after” the unity and stability of the GCC and he urged close consultations with the United States as part of this effort.
The FBI has launched a hunt for a previously unknown team of men suspected of being part of the attacks of September 11, 2001, according to documents obtained by WikiLeaks.
The documents disclose that the three Qatari men, who had flown into America from London, conducted surveillance on the targets of the atrocities, gave ”support” to the plotters and had tickets for a flight to Washington on the eve of the attacks.
They allegedly carried out surveillance at the World Trade Centre, the White House and in Virginia, where the Pentagon and CIA headquarters are.
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Ten days later, they flew to Los Angeles and stayed in a hotel near the airport which the FBI has established was paid for by a ”convicted terrorist”, who had also paid for their airline tickets.
Hotel staff told investigators they saw pilot uniforms in their room. On September 10 they were booked on an American Airlines flight from Los Angeles to Washington but did not board. The next day five terrorists hijacked the same aircraft and crashed it into the Pentagon.
Instead of boarding their flight to Washington, the Qatari suspects – named as Meshal Alhajri, Fahad Abdulla and Ali Alfehaid – flew back to London on a British Airways flight then on to Qatar. Their location now is unknown.
The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamed Ben Khalifa, succeeded in defeating the end of last week and attempted coup, which occurred after the deposition of some thirty senior Qatari army, some are under house arrest.
The news of the attempted coup coincided with a declaration of some people from families close to the emir of Qatar and opponents of the current regime, in which they announced the non-recognition of the legitimacy of the Emir Hamed Ben Khalifa, and seek to replace him by his brother Abdelaziz Ben Khalifa ben Hamed refugee to France.
The statement of the Qatari opposition, signed by 66 political opponents as well as Qatari personalities and ruling families, including 16 figures from the ruling family, contained serious accusations against the current Emir of Qatar, among others, relations with Israel and the United States of America. He is accused of working for the United States and creating discord among Arab countries in addition to his involvement with the family of his wife in corruption and social injustice against thousands of Qatari citizens.
The signatories of the statement have mentioned the wife of the Emir, known as “Sheikha Mouza Bint Nacer El Mesned “, whose appearances in various media, clothed contrary to the customs of Qatar which they considered “indecent”. His children, they add, have monopolized power and property of Qatari through use of power.
The signatories of the declaration encourage initiative on the social networking site Facebook, calling for bringing down the Qatari regime.
The 22 Hezbollah detainees that were convicted of plotting attacks against ships in the Suez Canal and Egyptian tourist sites, among other charges were able to escape from their jail in Egypt according to a report by Al Rai newspaper. The newspaper quoted Hezbollah sources as saying that the Hezbollah cell leader whose code name is Sami Shihab and whose real name is Mohammad Youssef Ahmad Mansour, was amongst those that escaped and that “he is now in a safe location and will soon be back to Lebanon.”
The sources denied the report by Israeli newspapers which revealed that a Hezbollah and Hamas Commando unit freed the Hezbollah prisoners.
Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen discusses the rapidly evolving situation in Egypt. Madsen is a Washington, D.C.-based investigative journalist, author and columnist specializing in intelligence and international affairs. He is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists, Investigative Reporters and Editors, Association of Former Intelligence Officers, and the National Press Club.
[...] Danny as he is popularly known is widely rumored in the intelligence community to be the Israeli spy agency Mossad’s representative in The Gambia. Danny has penetrated The Gambia’s security establishment by providing allowances to security officials who have been fired.
[...] Danny was actually detained at the NDEA last December as he was suspected to be the source of the leak to the CIA that resulted in the Iranian arms being intercepted in Lagos.
The Syrian opposition reported that the regime of President Bashar Assad has been shaken by four suicide attacks in one day. The opposition said the bombings took place in the northern city of Aleppo on Jan. 17, and at least seven people were killed.
World Tribune | January 19, 2011
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Intelligence Services in Syria try to avert Ben Ali effect
The intelligence services in Syria are doing everything possible to prevent a copycat uprising in the country, following the overthrow of Ben Ali in Tunisia.President Bashar Al Assad held a meeting with the principal as well as regional heads of Syria’s security services on January 16. On the agenda was how to ensure that the current wave of opposition in Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt does not spread to Syria’s streets. In a bid to preempt unrest, Assad ordered a crack-down on corrupt officials. He also told the security services to position their officers in meeting places throughout the country, in the souks and in town centres, ready to deal swiftly with any demonstrations of opposition. Military security was also told to increase the pace with which it takes down satellite TV dishes. The various units in charge of phone tapping are going to increase their presence in call centres, and they are going to set up an emergency plan that, in case of trouble, will isolate a village, a town or even a region from the rest of the fixed and mobile telephony network. On January 17, Assad took a highly rare meeting with Interior Minister Saed Samour, police officials from the different regions and the heads of Criminal Security branches: usually, the president only takes meetings with the interior minister and the head of Political Security.
Why is official Washington so obsessed with the idea of overthrowing these governments? The answer has everything to do with Iran, China, and Russia. As regards Iran, the State Department policy is notoriously the attempt to assemble a united front of the entrenched Arab and Sunni regimes to be played against Shiite Iran and its various allies across the region. This had not been going well, as shown by the inability of the US to install its preferred puppet Allawi in Iraq, where the pro-Iranian Maliki seems likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future. The US desperately wants a new generation of unstable “democratic” demagogues more willing to lead their countries against Iran than the current immobile regimes have proved to be. There is also the question of Chinese economic penetration.
We can be confident that any new leaders installed by the US will include in their program a rupture of economic relations with China, including especially a cutoff of oil and raw material shipments, along the lines of what Twitter revolution honcho Mir-Hossein Mousavi was reliably reported to be preparing for Iran if he had seized power there in the summer of 2009 at the head of his “Death to Russia, death to China” rent-a-mob. In addition, US hostility against Russia is undiminished, despite the cosmetic effects of the recent ratification of START II. If for example a color revolution were to come to Syria, we could be sure that the Russian naval presence at the port Tartus, which so disturbs NATO planners, would be speedily terminated. If the new regimes demonstrate hostility against Iran, China, and Russia, we would soon find that internal human rights concerns would quickly disappear from the US agenda.
Hard-pressed by Syrian President Bashar Assad and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan, Jordan’s King Abdulllah II has sharply reduced the kingdom’s military and intelligence collaboration with Israel after 60 years in which the partnership buttressed the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s often shaky survival, secured Israel’s eastern frontier and helped safeguard both against terrorism.
DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources disclose that Jordan has reduced cooperation to the narrow border strip cutting down the middle of the Jordan River, keeping it in place only because it is an essential barrier against the flooding of the kingdom with hundreds of thousands of West Bank Palestinians. All other forms of the intelligence-sharing which kept both abreast of Middle East threats and undercurrents have been discontinued.
The Lebanese army said it dismantled two “espionage devices” on Wednesday that Israel had placed on top of two of the country’s mountains, acting on an alert from Hezbollah.
“Earlier today, military intelligence discovered the two devices and dismantled them,” an army spokesman told AFP, without specifying the nature of the equipment.
The spying devices were found on Mount Sannine, northeast of Beirut, and the Barouk Mountain, east of the capital, he added.
An army statement said the device on Mount Sannine consisted of visual emission and reception parts. The second device was “more complicated,” it added, without elaborating.
Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi estimated that Hezbollah had a hand in the attempted attack on members of the Israeli embassy in Jordan last year, a US State Department document published Wednesday by WikiLeaks revealed.
The document was authored on January 29, 2010 following a meeting between American Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Sison and UN special coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams.
According to the document, Williams told the American diplomat about his meetings in Israel with Lieutenant-General Ashkenazi, former Foreign Ministry Director-General Yossi Gal and Brigadier-General Yossi Hyman.
Williams visited Israel a few days after a demolition charge exploded near a convoy of Israeli embassy members in Jordan. Luckily, no one was injured in the incident.
In their meeting, the chief of staff estimated that Hezbollah had limited involvement in the attempted attack, which Israeli senior officials say targeted the Israeli ambassador to Amman.
However, Ashkenazi also noted that the attack was planned with simplicity that is not typical of the Lebanese Shiite organization.
Saudi Arabia proposed creating an Arab force backed by US and Nato air and sea power to intervene in Lebanon two years ago and destroy Iranian-backed Hezbollah, according to a US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
The plan would have sparked a proxy battle between the US and its allies against Iran, fought in one of the most volatile regions of the world.
The Saudi plan was never enacted but reflects the anxiety of Saudi Arabia – as well as the US – about growing Iranian influence in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.
The proposal was made by the veteran Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, to the US special adviser to Iraq, David Satterfield. The US responded by expressing scepticism about the military feasibility of the plan.
It would have marked a return of US forces to Lebanon almost three decades after they fled in the wake of the 1983 suicide attack on US marine barracks in Beirut that killed 299 American and French military personnel.
Faisal, in a US cable marked secret, emphasised the need for what he referred to as a “security response” to the military challenge to the Lebanon government from Hezbollah, the Shia militia backed by Iran and, to a lesser extent, Syria.
The cable says: “Specifically, Saud argued for an ‘Arab force’ to create and maintain order in and around Beirut.
“The US and Nato would need to provide transport and logistical support, as well as ‘naval and air cover’. Saud said that a Hezbollah victory in Beirut would mean the end of the Siniora government and the ‘Iranian takeover’ of Lebanon.”
The discussion came just days after Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian groups in Lebanon laid siege to Beirut, threatening the pro-western government of Fouad Siniora, after 17 months of street demonstrations.
Siniora survived, though only after making enormous concessions to Hezbollah. He was replaced by another pro-western leader, Saad Hariri, but Hezbollah remains a force in Lebanon, lionised by many Arabs after defeating Israel in the 2006 war along the Lebanese border.
According to the cable Saud argued that a Hezbollah victory against the Siniora government “combined with Iranian actions in Iraq and on the Palestinian front would be a disaster for the US and the entire region”. Saud argued that the present situation in Beirut was “entirely military” and the solution must be military as well. The situation called for an “Arab force drawn from Arab ‘periphery’ states to deploy to Beirut under the ‘cover of the UN’.”
Saud said Siniora strongly backed the idea but the only Arab countries aware of it were Egypt and Jordan, along with the secretary general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa.
No contacts had been made with Syria on any Beirut developments, Saud said, adding: “What would be the use?”
Saud said that of all the regional fronts on which Iran was advancing, Lebanon would be an “easier battle to win” for the anti-Iranian allies.
Satterfield responded that the “political and military” feasibility of the undertaking Saud had outlined would appear very much open to question, particularly securing UN agreement, but the US would study any Arab decision.
Saud concluded by underscoring that a UN-Arab peacekeeping force coupled with US air and naval support would “keep out Hezbollah forever” in Lebanon.
Iranian source says Tehran uncovered Mossad attempts to arrange assassination operation during Ahmadinejad’s Lebanon visit; those involved in plot ‘sold their soul to Zionists,’ he says.
Did Mossad try to assassinate Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his visit to Lebanon six weeks ago? This claim was made by an Iranian source in an interview with the London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat.
The report was not confirmed by any other source.
According to the Iranian source, Iran “uncovered Mossad attempts to assassinate Ahmadinejad during the visit using Iranian opposition elements, some of whom reside in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.”
The source added that Tehran is aware of the activity of Iranian opposition elements who he said “had sold their souls to the forces of imperialism and Zionism.”
The source further stated that Iran is not interested in discussing the opposition activists directly “so as not to give them more weight than they have.”
“We do not call them opposition elements as one would call the political opposition which ran against Ahmadinejad in the elections; rather, we call them ‘hypocrites’ because they cooperate with outside forces and the Zionists against the Islamic revolution and the Iranian people.”
According to the report, Iranian security forces cooperated not just with Lebanon’s official security forces but also with Hezbollah’s special security units to guard Ahmadinejad.
The source said that Iranian representatives visited the northern border two weeks ago and went as far as the Fatima Gate.
He refused to say whether they were military, security or political officials but noted that the delegation observed the IDF soldiers stationed at the other side of the border.
Time Magazine claims Egyptian intelligence tipped Israel off ahead of the arrival of a senior Army of Islam militant as part of its attempts to thwart terror activity in Sinai.
Egypt assisted in the recent assassination of a high-ranking Gaza militant, Time Magazine reported on Thursday, saying Cairo was prompted to aid Israel as a result of its desire to damage Hezbollah’s efforts in the Sinai Peninsula.
Mohammed Nimnim, 37, a senior member of the Army of Islam, an extremist group that kidnapped British reporter Alan Johnston in March 2007, was killed when his car exploded outside a police station in Gaza City over a week ago.
Israel initially refused to comment on the attack but the Israel Defense Forces later confirmed it had carried out a joint operation with the Shin Bet security service.
The IDF spokeswoman referred to Nimnim as a “ticking bomb”, saying he was part of an al Qaida-linked group that was planning attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
On Thursday, however, Time magazine quoted security sources as saying that Egyptian intelligence had managed to get word of the intended plot against U.S. forces in the region from Army of Islam operatives captured in Sinai.
Referring to the significance and rarity of such an intelligence exchange between the two states, a security source was quoted by Time as saying that Egypt was “helping much more.”
As to the reason for the uncommon cooperation, Time cited Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s animosity toward terror activity in the Sinai Peninsula, specifically in the wake of Egypt’s uncovering of a major Hezbollah terror ring in the area last year.
In April of 2009, Egypt announced that a cell of 49 men with links to Hezbollah were planning attacks aimed at destabilizing the country. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, rejected the accusations but confirmed over the weekend that the group had dispatched a member to Egypt – a rare acknowledgment that the Lebanese militant group was operating in another Arab country.
In his first comments on the accusations, Mubarak told Lebanon’s prime minister during a phone call on Sunday that Egypt “will not allow anyone to violate its borders or destabilize the country.”
The United States is to significantly increase the amount of military equipment held in Israel as part of a move to upgrade security ties between the two allies, press reports said Thursday.
The move, which will see an extra 400-million-dollars worth of smart bombs and other precision weaponry and equipment moved to Israel over the next two years, was approved last week by the US Congress, the Israeli correspondent of Defense News reported.
The upgrade will see the value of US military equipment stockpiled in Israel rise to one billion dollars in 2011, with another 200 million to be added in 2012, the paper said. In 2007, the stockpile was valued at 800 million dollars.
Such equipment can be used by US forces throughout the world but also by the host country, under the terms of the US foreign aid law governing reserve stockpiles for allies.
Israel made use of the stockpile during the 2006 war with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia — a conflict which killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, most of them civilians, and around 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers, the Haaretz daily reported.
The move comes as part of a major upgrade of military ties between the United States and Israel.
Earlier this year, the US Congress approved a 205-million-dollar grant to help Israel develop the Iron Dome anti-missile system, on top of the annual three billion dollars the Jewish state receives from Washington.
Rocket launchers, grenades and other explosives camouflaged as building material were seized in the Nigerian port of Lagos.
Nigeria’s secret service said on Tuesday it had intercepted 13 containers of weapons from Iran in what Israeli defense sources believe may be part of a new smuggling route from Iran to Hamas in Gaza.
Rocket launchers, grenades and other explosives camouflaged as building material were seized in the Nigerian port of Lagos after being unloaded from an Iranian ship.
Nigerian media reports said the ship, which came from Iran, docked in Lagos’ port for a few hours only, unloaded 13 containers and sailed on.
The bill of lading said the shipment consisted of building materials, Nigerian State Security Service spokeswoman Marilyn Ogar said.
“On opening the first container, the service operatives discovered rocket launchers, grenades and other explosives,” Ogar said, adding the weapons were concealed among crates of floor tiles.
The SSS had received intelligence ahead of time about the intention to smuggle weapons in containers via Lagos and was prepared for it, reports said.
Nigerian National Security Adviser Andrew Owoye Azazi declined to say what ship carried the weapons into the port. He said the federal government would destroy the weapons.
According to the Nigerian media, the clearing agent in charge of unloading the containers from the ship offered to bribe the Nigerian customs officers to transfer the containers to an off-dock terminal, where they could be screened outside the port. The customs officials alerted the security services, who ordered the containers opened.
Israel and Nigeria maintain security, trade and diplomatic relations. About a year ago Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman visited Nigeria, accompanied by Nitzan Nuriel, director of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau.
A Foreign Ministry source said the Israeli Embassy in Nigeria was conducting talks with the SSS and the Nigerian foreign ministry in an attempt to find out more about the weapons and the investigation into the affair.
A senior defense source said preliminary information suggests the weapons’ seizure has exposed a possible new arms smuggling route from Iran to Hamas, via Africa. He said the Iranians may have run into difficulties sending arms to Hamas via the Red Sea to the Sudan region and from there to Gaza via Sinai, following the beefed up international supervision on the movement of Iranian ships.
“Perhaps the Iranians were planning to unload the weapons in Nigeria and transfer them by land to Sudan and Sinai,” the senior source said.
On the last day of the Israeli offensive Cast Lead in Gaza, Israel and the United States signed an agreement to fight arms smuggling from Iran to Hamas.
They set up a work team of several Western States for sharing intelligence and stopping Iranian arms smuggling via the sea to Gaza.
In March 2009 foreign media reported that Israel Air Force airplanes attacked a convoy of weapons smugglers in Sudan on its way to Gaza. Thirty-nine of the people in the convoy were killed and civilians in the area were wounded. Israel refused to confirm its involvement in the attack.
Defense officials said this could be Iran’s third attempt at arms smuggling by sea that has been intercepted in the course of the past year.
In November 2009, the Israel Navy boarded the vessel Francop in the Mediterranean Sea. The ship was carrying hundreds of tons of weapons from Iran to Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In September this year an arms delivery from Iran to Syria was intercepted in Italy’s Calabria port. A few days later an arms shipment from North Korea to Syria was captured in a Greek port.
Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, the head of Saudi Arabia’s National Security Council (NSC), was reported by the Saudi Press Agency to have arrived in Riyadh from an unspecified destination on October 14th. This was the first official reference to Prince Bandar’s whereabouts since he disappeared from public view almost two years ago, without explanation. His absence prompted a welter of lurid speculation; his return will likewise raise questions about possible shifts in Saudi domestic politics and about the kingdom’s approach to sensitive regional issues.
The aura surrounding Prince Bandar has arisen from the special status that he enjoyed for 22 years as Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US. He gained privileged access to successive US presidents, and was particularly close to the Bush family. He was recalled to Saudi Arabia in 2005 to head the NSC, and was confirmed in that post 12 months ago, although he had not been seen in public in Saudi Arabia since the end of 2008. Several theories circulated about the possible reasons for his absence—including illness, a power struggle within the al-Saud ruling family and policy differences over Saudi relations with Syria and Iran (his disappearance was followed by a dramatic rapprochement between the Saudi king, Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad).
Welcoming party
The report of his return to Riyadh gave no indication of where Prince Bandar had been or of his future plans. However, it did provide a long list of the dignitaries present at the airport to greet him, including the most senior security figures in the kingdom—Prince Migrin bin Abdel-Aziz, the chief of general intelligence; Prince Khaled bin Sultan (Bandar’s half-brother), the deputy defence and aviation minister; and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the deputy interior minister.
Since Prince Bandar has been out of circulation there have been a number of significant developments in domestic Saudi politics and with respect to regional security. The king has taken steps to clarify the succession question by naming the interior minister, Prince Nayef bin Abdel-Aziz, as first deputy prime minister, a position that has traditionally been seen as a preparation for becoming crown prince. Resolving this matter has acquired some urgency in light of the concerns about the health of Crown Prince Sultan, who is back in Morocco after a brief interlude in Saudi Arabia following hospital treatment abroad. On the security front, Saudi troops made an incursion into northern Yemen against Houthi rebels at the end of 2009, taking relatively high casualties. The difficulties that the Saudi forces faced in Yemen appear to have influenced the king’s decision to sanction a major weapons deal with the US—the first such purchase since Prince Bandar’s recall from Washington.
Syrian vitriol
In the months preceding his disappearance Prince Bandar had been the target of a stream of vitriolic attacks in the Syrian media, which had accused him of backing Sunni Islamist groups in Lebanon and Syria in order to stir up sectarian tensions and undermine Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia movement, and weaken the Assad regime. These attacks ceased after the reconciliation between King Abdullah and Mr Assad, and Syria and Saudi Arabia have co-operated closely in supporting the current national unity government in Lebanon. This joint endeavour has become complicated in recent months by the tensions over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is thought to be preparing to issue indictments against Hezbollah members for involvement in the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the Sunni Muslim former prime minister of Lebanon (and protégé of the Saudi royal family).
King Abdullah and an increasingly influential Prince Miqrin appear to be committed to a policy of cultivating close relations with Syria and keeping lines of communication open to Iran (King Abdullah spoke on the telephone to Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, prior to the latter’s recent visit to Lebanon). Prince Bandar had been associated with a more confrontational approach, but there is as yet no indication that his return to Saudi Arabia signifies that any radical change in policy is being considered.
A record U.S. arms deal with Saudi Arabia is part of an effort to put pressure on Iran, partly by strengthening alliances with oil-rich neighbors also concerned by Iran’s rise.
Gulf states are stepping up weapons purchases from the United States in the face of an emerging Iran and other regional threats. The deals highlight the extent to which Washington now considers Gulf allies as key to containing Iran.
What are the major deals under way?
From 2005 to 2009, the US sold up to $37 billion in arms to Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait, according to the US Government Accountability Office.
The recent US-Saudi deal, which is expected to be submitted to Congress for approval soon, could be worth as much as $60 billion.
It would include 84 new Boeing F-15 fighter jets and upgrades to another 70 of them, as well as three types of helicopters: 72 Black Hawks, 70 Apaches, and 36 Little Birds.
In addition, US officials are discussing a $30 billion package to upgrade Saudi Arabia’s naval forces.
The US is also expected to agree next year to sell the Theater High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system to the UAE for about $7 billion.
Russia has also been a major supplier of arms to the Middle East. Moscow agreed in 2007 to sell P-800 antiship cruise missiles to Syria. Israel strenuously opposed the deal, citing concerns that the missiles might fall into the hands of the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah.
Russia said in September it would go through with the deal. But it did, however, cancel its $800 million deal to sell S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Iran, saying that would violate United Nations sanctions on Iran. Tehran has purchased more than $5 billion in Russian weapons systems over the past decade
How do arms sales help US interests?
Many argue that the main reason for the US-Saudi deal is concern about Iran’s rising power – and suspicions it is developing nuclear weapons. The US is increasingly concerned with Iran, and sees Gulf states – particularly Saudi Arabia – as essential partners in containing the Islamic state.
The US-Saudi deal is a reminder to the Iranians that if Tehran moves toward building a nuclear weapon, “the response will be to so beef up regional rivals and enemies that their overall position will be diminished,” says Thomas Lippman, adjunct senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
It could also serve to dissuade the Saudis from seeking nuclear weapons of their own.
“Part of what the [Obama] administration is doing,” Mr. Lippman adds, “is to convince the Saudis that we can take care of their security concerns without them getting nuclear.”
The deal could also spur new job growth, supporting at least 75,000 jobs at Boeing and United Technologies.
What do Arab states gain?
In addition to beefing up Gulf states’ military capabilities, the recent arms deals cement the US security relationship with those nations, which form a regional bloc known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
“I think that the message has already gone out that the US has guaranteed a ‘defense shield’ for the GCC states,” says Theodore Karasik, director for research and development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, based in Dubai, UAE. “Their security at the end of the day is guaranteed.”
The sale of advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia means that a support relationship with the US – for maintenance and training – will exist for at least a decade, binding the two in an interdependent relationship, says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
But Dr. Karasik cautions against focusing solely on the Iran factor. The Gulf states are simply assessing their national security needs and developing a plan to fulfill those needs, he says, “across the threat spectrum.”
“All the GCC states face a number of state and nonstate threats,” says Karasik. “They can run from a state threat like Iran, to a nonstate threat like the Houthi rebels [in northern Yemen], or Al Qaeda or other terrorist derivatives that could spring up. This also includes, for example, border control, which involves protection of air, land, and sea around a particular country.”
For example, the helicopters ordered by Saudi Arabia will be useful in dealing with the Houthi rebels, who have clashed with Saudi forces along the border with Yemen. “What they’re doing is quite logical,” he says. “They’re not willy-nilly spending money. It’s thought out very seriously.”
How well have Gulf states utilized such arms in the past?
Saudi Arabia already uses the US Patriot missile system and F-15 fighter jets. It has proved fairly adept at operating those weapons systems, says Dr. Cordesman. While the Saudi kingdom has had some problems with its weapons, “everybody has problems, including the US,” he says.
Karasik characterizes the Saudi performance as “very good,” although he says, “there might be a question about manpower and sustainability.”
Has arms buying shifted?
While the recent Gulf state arms deals may appear to be a major development, analysts say the global arms market is cyclical, with different nations commencing arms buildups at different times as they perceive their threat environments change.
Cordesman says there has been no major shift in global weapons procurement, though the Gulf nations are emerging as major importers, because they have no production base of their own. At the same time, European powers have been making arms cuts, skewing the market.
The Gulf states’ recent purchases are part of a long-term strategy, says Karasik. Even after the purchases are finalized, it will take years to complete training and deployment of some of the weapons systems. “You don’t buy something and get it right away,” he says.
Kristen Chick
Staff writer Stephen Kurczy contributed from Boston
The term dahiya (suburb) is a staple of Lebanese political discourse, practically shorthand for Hezbollah, the Shi‘i Islamist party seated in its infamous headquarters just south of Beirut. Before the civil war, the suburb, or more precisely suburbs, consisted of several small towns surrounded by orchards that began where the capital ended. Today, it is a heavily congested urban sprawl replete with higher-income neighborhoods, such as Jinah, where international chains such as Burger King, BHV, Monoprix, Spinneys and the Marriott have opened since the end of the civil war in 1990. Administratively, the dahiya lies in a half-dozen municipalities, and only one of these, Haret Hreik, home to Hezbollah’s party offices, is usually the “dahiya” that politicians and pundits have in mind.
The area’s portrayal as a mini-Islamic republic under absolute Hezbollah domination is a caricature. While there is less open public consumption of alcohol than in other parts of Beirut and women tend to dress more modestly, such conservative pockets exist elsewhere in Lebanon. Most women living in the dahiya wear some sort of head covering, but many do not and none are legally compelled to do so. Moreover, the dahiya contains substantial numbers of non-Shi‘i Lebanese, non-Shi‘i Arabs (primarily Palestinians, Syrians and Egyptians) and other foreigners (mainly Africans and Asians). But it remains Hezbollah’s home turf, along with the party’s strongholds in the northern Bekaa Valley and much, but by no means all, of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s security presence is strict near its party offices and institutions in Haret Hreik, where its vigilant street personnel detain and question curious camera wielders or others who show up unannounced to poke around. The party’s supporters cite fears of information being gathered and funneled to Israel, while critics call it the state-within-a-state syndrome. Whatever the case, more than 160 suspected Israeli agents have been arrested in only the last 16 months, whether by Hezbollah or state police and intelligence bodies, with the southern suburbs as a key target.
Clans, Guns and Money
In late 2009, the fatal knifing of a young Christian by Shi‘i youth in the neighboring suburb of ‘Ayn al-Rummana brought the dahiya’s “beyond the law” atmosphere to a boiling point, but a bubble of crime and disorder had existed long before the incident. Confronted by state law enforcement organs or others, many thugs would falsely claim that they enjoyed political cover from the party. As one observer in the party’s orbit put it, the mere claim of “I’m Hezbollah,” brandished by a local, could deter any further questioning by a policeman. A former Hezbollah member described a situation wherein neighborhood freelancing za‘ims (leaders) exploited the chaotic dahiya environment to engage in illegalities, extorting money from residents for electricity and satellite television services, generating resentment and sometimes violence. Just after the knifing incident, on-the-ground responsibility for security and public order in the dahiya began to shift in favor of the Lebanese state. In November 2009, Hezbollah blessed a long overdue clean-up operation, as personnel from the Internal Security Forces (a centralized police force) and various intelligence bodies established a presence in the dahiya to root out the criminals. The party dubbed the campaign al-Nizam min al-Iman (“public order is a part of faith”), and it covered everything from regulating traffic and use of sidewalks to sanitation and discouraging the theft of state electricity supplies via illegal connections to the network.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has largely washed its hands of the tuffar — outlaws in the northern Bekaa Valley involved in cannabis cultivation. The tuffar have remained aloof from both the government and Hezbollah, having retreated to the outer reaches of Lebanon, where they represent more a voice of protest than a plan of action. The popularity of their cause stems from corruption and waste in the central government, the lack of profitable alternatives to drug farming and the specter of nearly 40,000 outstanding warrants hanging over the heads of Bekaa residents. Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah has demanded an amnesty or another solution to the warrants issue.
During and after the civil war, Syrian military and intelligence officials managed the unruly clans in the northern Bekaa, whose turf battles had a propensity for violence, and since Syria’s 2005 withdrawal, Hezbollah has not filled the vacuum. While continuing to sponsor reconciliation between the area’s clans, it has not acted to end the disturbances once and for all. Hezbollah is not pulling the strings of the tuffar movement, but rather eying it warily as an offshoot of the network of Bekaa tribes it has yet to fully co-opt. Perhaps because of the charged sectarian climate of recent years, the party has not lobbied hard for the canceling of outstanding warrants — a move that would benefit the Shi‘i community. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has refused to condone the acts of violent Shi‘i clan members or criminals, or to protect the mini-industry of car theft centered in the village of Brital. Clashes between the Lebanese army and outlaws have become more frequent since Syria’s withdrawal and Hezbollah has generally offered its tacit blessing for army intervention in towns like Baalbek, where clan members have engaged in shootouts in the streets, sometimes with rocket-propelled grenades.
While Hezbollah has not used the last five years to co-opt the entirety of the Shi‘i population, it continues to cultivate its core constituency. The large-scale and usually efficient provision of social services to the public is a pillar of Hezbollah’s drive to gain the support of the majority of the Shi‘a. The party provides schools, medical facilities, agricultural assistance and support for widows and orphans. But Hezbollah has been unable to secure the Health, Education or Social Affairs Ministries in the three governments formed since Syria’s withdrawal. Such “service” portfolios would grant Hezbollah secure channels of patronage to be directed at needy urban and rural communities. Meanwhile, the July 2006 war with Israel required the party to rebuild the swathes of the southern suburbs destroyed by Israeli raids. Hezbollah established the firm Waad (Promise) alongside its long-time arm for such endeavors, Jihad al-Bina’ (Jihad Construction), to oversee reconstruction, and the results have been slow but positive; an observer said that even virulently anti-Hezbollah engineers and technicians were enthusiastically participating in the reconstruction projects, due to the professionalism of the effort. In contrast, the government’s performance can be summed up by its sole significant project in the suburbs, the airport bridge-tunnel in Ghubayri, which inches toward completion more than four years after the war. Accusations of official mismanagement of reconstruction funds, which were donated by a number of countries, abound. The likeliest explanation is that the government used part of the money to pay down the national debt, rather than channeling it to reconstruction.
In securing services and projects, Hezbollah has honed its lobbying skills as it interacts with the Lebanese state, foreign governments and local communities. A union official observed: “When Christian MPs visit a government minister, they usually ask for favors, personal things, related to prestige, like a vanity license plate for a constituent. The Hezbollah MPs are all business. They always have a request for some civil defense center or hospital in some village. They’re always asking for such things.” Critics castigate Hezbollah for relying on Iranian subsidies, but the party also obtains funding from the Shi‘i diaspora and services from state bureaucratic channels, and raises no objections to Arab Gulf countries earmarking reconstruction aid for individual villages in the south. Moreover, the money that is secured is sometimes used to create self-generating sources of revenue. The party’s showcase endeavor has been a massive open-air museum in the southern village of Malita in commemoration of Hezbollah’s operations against Israel from 1982 to 2000, when the Israeli army occupied southern Lebanon. The Malita complex, dubbed “jihad tourism” by Western media, has attracted a half-million visitors in the three months following its May opening.[1] Malita was completed less than one year after a record year of tourism in Lebanon, while the government’s efforts to promote tourism have been reactive and slow to translate funding into impact.
Politicians regularly spout the rhetoric of sustainable development, but most of Lebanon’s political class is more intent on securing patronage in the form of a payoff and then skimming off a percentage before passing it along, if it gets passed along. Hezbollah realizes the importance of both diversified funding sources and sustainable projects; it built the Malita complex itself, after encouraging private-sector supporters to build restaurants, hotels and other leisure establishments in various areas of the country, including a low-cost amusement park and paintball field in the dahiya.
‘Izz al-Din “Madoff” vs. Fnayish and Co.
Hezbollah’s standing took a hit in June 2009, when the public became acquainted with one Salah ‘Izz al-Din, a businessman, financier and confidante of Hezbollah, and reportedly an investment partner of several top party officials. ‘Izz al-Din was apparently unable to cover the huge sums he owed, thanks to a Ponzi scheme he allegedly ran to the tune of $200-400 million. ‘Izz al-Din and his partners are now before the courts and the event was seized upon, briefly, to highlight Hezbollah’s purportedly shady finances and corruption. The repercussions will likely be limited to the upper reaches of the party, however, and Nasrallah has reportedly relayed a strict internal message: Halt corrupt activities immediately.
In contrast, a more favorable reputation for the party is being built thanks to Hezbollah’s ministers in the executive branch. On regional and international policies, Nawwaf al-Musawi is Hezbollah’s leading spokesman, while on purely domestic issues, Muhammad Fnayish has been the party’s most prominent face. Fnayish, who served as energy minister, was the only one of Hezbollah’s partisans named to the 2005 cabinet, though the party also selected a minister of labor, Trad Hamada, an ex-leftist and now Islamist-oriented figure.
After a disappointing performance as labor minister, Hamada was replaced by Fnayish in the 2008 cabinet. When he assumed office, Fnayish wrested control of the labor movement file from Hezbollah’s official Labor Bureau, but declined to use the General Labor Confederation (theoretically in the party’s hip pocket) as a tool to pressure rivals in the divided cabinet. Fnayish also ended the reign of notorious middlemen who processed paperwork at the ministry by tendering the job out to Liban Post, a private firm. The majority of these several hundred middlemen were supporters of Hezbollah or its fellow Shi‘i party Amal, but under Fnayish’s reforms, people now turn in their forms at local post offices, instead of going to the Labor Ministry in the dahiya and paying a middleman to facilitate the process. During his short tenure at the Energy and Water Ministry, prior to 2008, Fnayish had instituted a nationwide addition of plastic wrapping to butane canisters, used commonly in home heating and cooking, in order to prevent rampant tampering. Such good governance initiatives are rare and often ineffective, due to opposition from powerful entrenched interests.
Fnayish’s dynamic but low-key approach stood out in a government riddled with under performing ministers, whether from the Western-backed March 14 coalition, so named for the date of a massive demonstration against the Syrian “presence” in Lebanon in 2005, or from among its rivals. The March 14 parties had won the May 2005 parliamentary elections after the departure of Syrian troops, but had formed a “national unity” cabinet with its opponents, including Hezbollah and Amal. While serving as energy minister, Fnayish had attempted reform but was blocked by the March 14 prime minister, Fuad Siniora; the issue finally became public when Fnayish’s successor and ally disclosed the stalemate and Siniora’s alleged bureaucratic foot dragging on revamping the mismanaged state electricity sector.
Whether or not a minister can be completely “clean” is a something of a moot question in Lebanon, where the entire range of political parties, Hezbollah included, are believed to divert money and resources from government channels or profit from illegal enterprises. The judiciary’s exposure of corruption has been extremely selective. The vast network of intertwined interests and trading of favors in national politics hints that a comprehensive revelation of who exactly is involved in illegalities would produce a very long list, meaning that everyone has an interest in keeping things relatively quiet.
A challenge now awaits at the Agriculture Ministry, to which Hezbollah official Husayn Hajj Hasan was named in the government formed by Saad al-Hariri in November 2009. The ministry lacks significant state funding and has been awash in corruption, but if anyone is under pressure to make it work, it is Hezbollah, which has long criticized the government neglect that hurts the party’s rural bases of support in the Bekaa and the south. A long-time MP for Baalbek-Hirmil, Hajj Hasan had served for years as the vocal chairman of Parliament’s Agriculture Committee; he holds a doctorate in chemistry and physics and is one of the few ministers who appears qualified for his portfolio.
Hajj Hasan’s short tenure has spread cautious optimism. While he began by repeating his predecessors’ tactic of decrying insufficient government funding, Hajj Hasan also exposed the corruption that plagues the ministry, where he says three quarters of bureaucrats are implicated in taking bribes and other illegalities, and customs declarations for wheat shipments involve rampant forgery. More recently, he has taken disciplinary action against employees allegedly responsible for allowing spoiled foodstuffs into the country and legal action against importers. Hajj Hasan’s ambitious four-year reform plan might fail to defeat the sector’s cartels of pesticide merchants and promoters of traditional, low-value crops, who inhibit dynamism and growth. But his latest achievement, in July, was to broker a first-ever soft loan program for farmers, courtesy of the country’s private banks, in an attempt to generate funding rather than merely register complaints.[2] The last two decades of Hezbollah’s service provision to rural residents, among them many farmers, appear to have had only a limited impact, despite the considerable amount of aid disbursed. On the other hand, the services might have prevented a total collapse of conditions for Shi‘i farmers.
Both Fnayish and Hajj Hasan have helped to polish Hezbollah’s domestic political aura of seriousness and anti-corruption, or at least its reputation as a party that abstains from significant official chicanery. The two ministers may not be charismatic, but they can hold forth on their respective policy domains on nightly political talk shows for several hours without causing Lebanese viewers to roll their eyes in disgust, as they do when more divisive and corrupt figures are on camera.
The National Cup
To mark the thirty-fifth anniversary of the outbreak of the civil war in 1975, Lebanese ministers and MPs gathered on a soccer pitch in the dahiya on April 13 to play a 30-minute match for civil peace. Detractors faulted the upbeat, nationally televised game for starring the very political class that many blame for sectarian unrest, political corruption and economic mismanagement. Not surprisingly, the evening was heavy with symbolism. Organized by Minister of Youth and Sports ‘Ali ‘Abdallah, from Amal, the match pitted two teams made up of a mixture of players from the March 14 forces and their political foes in the March 8 coalition, so named for the large rally “thanking” Syria on the eve of Syrian troops’ exodus from Lebanon. One team was captained by Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and the other by Hezbollah’s ‘Ali ‘Ammar, an MP for Baadba.
One of the most divisive figures in the March 14 camp, Maten MP Sami Gemayel, a young Phalange Party official, scored both goals in the match. He put the ball in the net guarded by goalie Qasim Hashim, an MP for Marjayoun-Hasbaya and a member of the Baath Party. In attendance was President Michel Suleiman, whose status as a neutral or “consensus” head of state excused his direct participation. By state protocol, the speaker of Parliament, Amal head Nabih Berri, should have been number two in the match’s pecking order and the prime minister number three, but instead the captains were selected from the two parties commonly seen as leading each of the March 14 and March 8 camps: Hariri’s Future Movement and Hezbollah. On their flanks were more hardline types, such as the Phalange, who regularly criticize Hezbollah and its allies Syria and Iran, and the Baath, which marches in lockstep with Damascus.
The principals and their post-game comments reflected the schizophrenia that plagues the political class: On one hand, politicians say Lebanese should “forget” the sectarian conflicts of the past; on the other hand, they say, “We can’t forget,” lest the conflicts return. Referring to Hezbollah’s self-titled “national defense strategy” for confronting Israel, in large part with Hezbollah’s weapons, goal-scorer Gemayel said of his opponents, captained by ‘Ammar, “The defense strategy of Hajj ‘Ali was pretty bad,” before erupting into laughter. For his part, ‘Ammar smilingly explained his side’s loss by saying that since Hariri was the captain of the other team, and since Hezbollah was a part of the cabinet, it “didn’t want to embarrass the government.”
Forty-eight hours prior to the game, Gemayel had told a political rally that the day would come when Hezbollah’s arms would be confiscated, piled on army trucks and sent from the dahiya to the Defense Ministry in upper Baabda. The March 8 coalition also has its hardliners: A few days after giving up the goals, MP Hashim turned to the attack on the border with Israel. He rallied locals in a village and led them a few feet into disputed territory, removing Israeli barbed wire and hoisting Lebanese flags. Echoing a similar incident that took place in 1999, spontaneously led by leftist and other secular students,[3] this round of tit-for-tat on the border also saw the Israelis quickly remove the paraphernalia. The Phalange rally rhetoric and the Baath-led action were examples of political freelancing, while in an official soccer game, Hezbollah was in effect put on a par with Hariri, a situation that did not exist prior to 2005. In the “old days,” Hezbollah MPs regularly voted no confidence in governments led by Hariri’s late father, Rafiq; today Hezbollah is in the government. A decade ago, Hezbollah did not enjoy this central role in the system, whereas today it often performs the function of playing the middle rather than representing the extreme.
Managing Stalemate
Tensions in Lebanon are high as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigates the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri by car bomb on February 14, 2005. Sectarian resentment also persists since the 2007 Hezbollah-led tent city protest in downtown Beirut. Much of this period saw parliamentary life in limbo and the cabinet paralyzed by the boycotts of Hezbollah and Amal ministers. In May 2008, three weeks of bloody civil strife broke out in several parts of Lebanon between the March 14 and March 8 camps, with Hezbollah providing the most efficient shock troops.
The bitterness of many people about the bloody civil strife of May 2008 continues to generate ever-ready accusations that “Hezbollah turned its guns against Lebanese.” One response by Hezbollah was to direct its public relations efforts beyond the converted, stepping up the number of guided tours of the former Israeli-occupied zone in the south for students from elite universities, in an effort to reinforce the concept of resistance to Israel. Helping Hezbollah stay afloat politically during this period was its alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement, led by the Maronite Christian Michel Aoun — a partnership that has helped to temper sentiment that only Shi‘a support Hezbollah. Rather than effortlessly dominating the national arena in the aftermath of Syria’s withdrawal, Hezbollah has focused on forging alliances, and unlike in the pre-2005 period, the party’s charismatic leader, Nasrallah, now frequently uses televised addresses, speeches and interviews to tackle domestic and foreign affairs. To mobilize public opinion against the Tribunal, he has made a series of media appearances and released what he says is sensitive information about the plot to kill Hariri, promising even more revelations to come. Nasrallah’s rhetoric might anger Hezbollah’s political rivals, but his efforts are calibrated to build support and win allies, and the boyish, 50-year old cleric appears to be using more and more colloquial Arabic in his appearances, perhaps in an attempt to cast a wider net. Hezbollah will not compromise on “security,” by which the party means its weapons, but on other matters it lobbies and repeatedly argues its case, sometimes reaching compromises. If Lebanese politics in the 2005-2010 period has been a stalemate, it has been a very fluid one.
Hezbollah’s performance has not been spotless in the eyes of its base. Ahead of the May municipal elections, the party announced an ironclad alliance with Amal, to ensure winning coalition tickets. Prior to the polls, Nasrallah was obliged to intervene, publicly telling freelancing cadres who were promoting themselves as candidates in the name of the party to get in line and fully support the officially sanctioned Hezbollah-Amal slates. In the same speech, he told the wider public that voting against the coalition candidates was in effect a vote against resistance to Israel, an argument that many apparently found excessive. The public in various Shi‘i villages and towns fought back quite loudly, trying to form counter-lists. Ultimately, only a handful of upset wins were scored, but the people had spoken: They rejected the tried-and-true Hezbollah strategy of selecting lesser known and uninspiring figures and passing them off as authentic representatives of leading families. Officially, the party maintains that it did well, but if the previous municipal election performances by Hezbollah deserved an eight out of ten, one cadre reportedly related, the most recent effort deserved a six.
The New Maestro?
Prior to Syria’s withdrawal, Hezbollah reveled in its outsider role in national politics. The late Rafiq al-Hariri consulted the party face to face on certain domestic issues, but his son Saad now coordinates at least weekly with Hezbollah officials. Hezbollah and the Future Movement have participated in the cabinets since 2005. As one of the system’s top players, Hezbollah has generally avoided any attempt to take the country’s political system in a radically different direction without a consensus across parties.
Whether or not Hezbollah prefers to engage in domestic politics is irrelevant; it is under pressure to perform from its core constituency and the system, even if matters are supposedly deadlocked. Prior to 2005, Syria’s presence could be blamed for postponing a decision on, for example, how to reform the moribund state bureaucracy, but this excuse is fading. In Saad al-Hariri’s government, the point man for drafting guidelines for the appointment of senior civil servants on the basis of merit and seniority rather than sectarian and political affiliation is none other than Hezbollah’s Fnayish, who was named minister of state for administrative reform. Fnayish’s portfolio means that he is in regular contact with diplomats from many countries. Some might belittle the scope of the evolution in Hezbollah since its official coming-out in February 1985, but back then the party certainly did not worry about its stances on privatization, pesticide use, local elections, social security and reforming the bureaucracy. Nor was it obliged to hold meetings with foreign diplomats eager to jump on a bus and talk about funding a capacity-building initiative in southern Lebanon.
For now, the party is benefiting from its expanded civil, political and state responsibilities while managing to trim one of its more odious duties, namely policing the entirety of the dahiya. It has largely ignored wide-impact socioeconomic issues, but has managed to run its ministries without becoming tarred with accusations of corruption and squandering of resources. Hezbollah’s critics contend that its military-security activities demonstrate a flagrant disregard for the Lebanese state; in the cabinet, the party’s minister is tasked with coordinating positions on launching the reform of this state, and few eyebrows are raised. Ironically, the rhetoric about Hezbollah being “outside the state” has escalated at a time when its interface with this state is becoming more routine and at least partly institutionalized. While Hezbollah retains the greatest influence over “decisions of war and peace” (outbreaks of conflict with Israel), it has informally conferred with the Lebanese Army and state security institutions since the end of the civil war — an interplay that has become even more complex following the Syrian withdrawal. There have been ups and downs in Hezbollah’s relations with the army, but these are usually limited to fluctuations in the level of cooperation or competition, and do not deteriorate into out-and-out strife.
Hezbollah is not comfortable holding too much power; it has willingly given up a number of ministerial portfolios to its allies in the parliamentary minority. The party finds itself coordinating with two principal allies, Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement. The parliamentary minority camp is not in Hezbollah’s iron grip except on matters concerning resistance to Israel. On everything else, Hezbollah might allow its partners to lead the fight against March 14, or watch them go at each other, due to the poor relationship between Berri and Michel Aoun. On some occasions, the party even sides with elements of the “enemy” camp, as it did on the issue of legislating civil and humanitarian rights for Palestinian refugees, which split MPs in the summer of 2010 along Muslim-Christian lines before a compromise was reached.
For many of Hezbollah’s rabid critics, the party’s Islamist inclination is a threat to the Lebanese state and political order. Its military and intelligence capabilities give it an edge, the argument goes, that is used to “hold the country hostage” to Iran and Syria. While Hezbollah refuses to surrender its arms until the conflict with Israel ends, and remains committed to the end of a Zionist political entity, it has been forced to compensate politically for the dramatic downturn in resistance operations against Israel. From 1990 to 2000, Hezbollah launched thousands of attacks. In the decade since, the number has dropped to several dozen, even though Hezbollah insists that slivers of Lebanese territory, the Shebaa Farms, are still under Israeli occupation. Among the attacks were one in October 2001, which eventually led to a prisoners-for-bodies swap, and one in July 2006, which ignited a devastating 34-day war. Though Nasrallah claimed a “divine victory” in the latter conflagration, he and his colleagues know that many Lebanese have scant patience for border actions that provoke the Israeli military. Amid the steep reduction in the activity of the resistance, the party’s energy has flowed into the spheres of politics, the media, tourism, agriculture, social services, reconstruction, development and governance. During local and parliamentary elections, Hezbollah behaves like a Chicago political machine, like other Lebanese parties, and not like a branch of the Revolutionary Guards.
With Syria no longer in the picture to act as mediator, there has been multifaceted bargaining among the parties of Lebanon on a wide array of issues, such as how to conduct elections, reform and privatization, and not just big-ticket items like national sovereignty and Hezbollah’s arms. The political landscape is fragmented and marred by weak state institutions. The “national unity” cabinet and the national dialogue process periodically discuss the most sensitive issues but implement little. There are also contentious debates over the legality of political guidelines: UN resolutions, Syrian-sponsored treaties and the 1990 Ta’if Agreement that defined the post-civil war political system. Syria used to regulate matters and contain the possibility of grinding stalemate or civil strife. Questions of who is now Lebanon’s maestro with Syria gone, whether a domestic player or foreign party can play the role, and whether the country requires the infamous dabit al-iqa‘ (rhythm keeper) in the first place, continue to bedevil those who follow events in Lebanon. Hezbollah might be incapable of becoming the new maestro, but its reconstruction, albeit incomplete, of the dahiya after the July 2006 war signals that the party remains ahead in the governance game compared to the woeful Lebanese state.
Endnotes
[1] Independent, August 15, 2010. [2] Daily Star, August 26, 2010. [3] Hassan Marwany, “Liberating Arnoun,” Middle East Report 211 (Summer 1999).
Marlin Dick, a freelance journalist based in Lebanon
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