Blast Rocks Minsk Metro Near Lukashenko Office, Rouble Down By a Third against the Dollar, Lukashenko Says West “Trying to Strangle Belarus With a Slipknot”, Russia to Deliver More S-300 Air Defense Systems to Belarus, Seeks to Expand Its Customs Union, Kremlin Joy as Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan Sign up, Putin Urges Ukraine to Join New Space Center Project, Poland-Lithuania Relationship in Downward Spiral, Russia-Poland Rapprochement against a Backdrop of Contradictions, Moscow’s Star On Rise Again In Kyrgyzstan, Armenia Agrees Long-Term Russian Army Presence Boosting Moscow’s Military Influence in the South Caucasus Region, Turkey “Will Defend Rights of Azerbaijan”, Georgia Annuls Russian Military Transit Agreement, Saudi-Born Militant Killed in Chechnya, Israel Claims Russian Missile Hit School Bus, FSB Calls for Skype Gmail Ban in Russia
Belarus: Blast Rocks Minsk Metro Near Lukashenko Office
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko says 11 people were killed and hundreds injured in an explosion in the metro system of the capital, Minsk.
He called for a moment of silence to honour those killed in the blast, which struck a metro station close to his main office and residence.
[...] Mr Lukashenko said it was aimed at undermining “peace and stability”.
And he hinted at foreign involvement, linking the explosion to a blast at a concert in 2008 in which about 50 people were injured.
“These are perhaps links in a single chain. We must find out who gained by undermining peace and stability in the country, who stands behind this,” Mr Lukashenko said.
“I do not rule out that this [blast] was a gift from abroad.”
Continue Reading >> BBC News | April 11, 2011
____________________
Belarus Rouble Plunges in Setback for Lukashenko
The Belarussian rouble BYR= lost more than a third of its value against the dollar on Wednesday after the central bank introduced a free floating exchange rate for trade between banks.
The development starkly highlighted the currency problems of the ex-Soviet republic and amounted to a setback for President Alexander Lukashenko who was due on Thursday to deliver his annual state of the nation speech.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | April 20, 2011
____________________
President Lukashenko says West trying ‘to strangle’ Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday Western countries are preparing direct interference in his country’s affairs and are trying “to strangle the country with a slipknot.”
“First there were political threats, disavowal of [presidential] elections, [European] entry bans and economic sanctions. Then there was an instigation of turmoil on our foreign currency market and dances on the bones after the blast at the Oktyabrskaya metro station,” Lukashenko said addressing the parliament and his people.
Continue Reading >> RIA Novosti | April 21, 2011
____________________
Russia to Deliver More S-300 Air Defense Systems to Belarus
Russia will continue deliveries of S-300 air defense systems to Belarus, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said on Wednesday.
Belarus has several battalions equipped with Russian-made S-300 air defense systems on combat duty as part of the Russian-Belarusian integrated air defense network.
Continue Reading >> Democratic Belarus | April 21, 2011
____________________
Kremlin joy as Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan sign up for customs union
A post-Soviet customs bloc has received a major boost after the decision by Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan to sign up for membership.
Continue Reading >> Tribune Magazine | April 20, 2011
____________________
Putin Urges Ukraine To Join New Russian Space Center Project
Ukraine should participate in the construction of the Vostochny Space Center in Russia’s Far East, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in Kiev on Tuesday. Russia currently uses two launch sites: Baikonur in Kazakhstan, which it has leased since the end of the Soviet Union, and Plesetsk in northwest Russia.
Putin said construction work at the new space center had already started.
“You can join at the first stage,” the prime minister said at a meeting with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
Yanukovych, in response, said there were good prospects for Russian-Ukrainian space cooperation.
Continue Reading >> News One | April 13, 2011
____________________
Poland-Lithuania Relationship in Downward Spiral
Relations between Poland and Lithuania deteriorated to a new low when Poland summoned its neighbor’s ambassador to express anger over what it called “the atmosphere of hostility” toward the Polish minority in Lithuania.
Continue Reading >> The Wall Street Journal | April 20, 2011
____________________
Russia-Poland rapprochement against a backdrop of contradictions
[...] However, these changes in rhetoric have not caused any change in the two states’ strategic priorities. On the eve of the NATO summit in Lisbon (19-20 November 2010) President Komorowski confirmed the inviolability of the basic principles of Polish foreign policy, namely: the perception of Russia as a potential threat; assistance in preserving U.S. military presence in Europe, and assistance in integrating former Soviet republics into “Transatlantic institutions.” During the Warsaw meeting Komorowski also added that Poland would only countenance cooperation with Russia in the broader context of relations with the EU and NATO. Besides, Warsaw did not withdraw from the plan to allow U.S. TMD systems to be based on its territory or “the promotion of democracy” in Ukraine and Belarus. Such moves prompted hesitant but harsh criticism from Russia.
Continue Reading >> RIA Novosti | April 19, 2011
____________________
Russia’s Star On Rise Again In Kyrgyzstan
Outside forces have competed for influence in Kyrgyzstan since the vacuum left by the Soviet Union’s collapse two decades ago.
Kyrgyzstan allowed the United States to use its Manas airport for supporting efforts in Afghanistan and eagerly welcomed Chinese investment. Bishkek also granted Russia use of an air base at Kant. Kyrgyz policy appeared to play one power off against another.
For a time, Russia’s power appeared to be on the wane. But the overthrow of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev’s regime a year ago might have paved the way for Moscow’s resurgence.
Continue Reading >> Eurasianet | April 9, 2011
____________________
Armenia Agrees Long-Term Russian Army Presence
Armenia’s parliament on Tuesday ratified a deal to allow Russian troops to remain in the country for more than 30 years, boosting Moscow’s military influence in the strategic South Caucasus region.
Continue Reading >> Hurriyet Daily News | April 12, 2011
____________________
Erdogan says Turkey will defend rights of Azerbaijan
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday Turkey had made commitments to protect rights of Armenian people, however, he added that Turkey would also defend rights of Azerbaijan.
Continue Reading >> World Bulletin | April 13, 2011
____________________
Georgia Annuls Military Transit Treaty with Russia
Georgian Parliament unanimously endorsed on April 19 government’s proposal to annul a five-year agreement with Russia setting out procedures for transit of Russian military personnel and cargo to Armenia via Georgia.
Continue Reading >> Georgian Daily | April 19, 2011
____________________
Saudi militant killed in Chechnya
Officials said the militant known as Moganned had been operating in the northern Caucasus since 1999 and was involved in many bombings.
Continue Reading >> The Taipei Times | April 24, 2011
____________________
Israel claims Russian missile hit school bus
Israel claims anti-tank missile Kornet involved in terror attack originates from Russian factory. Official: It was smuggled into Gaza with Syria, Iran’s help.
Continue Reading >> Ynetnews | April 11, 2011
____________________
Kremlin rejects FSB proposal to ban Skype, Gmail
A Kremlin official has rejected a proposal from within Russia’s main domestic security agency to ban Skype, Gmail and Hotmail as a major threat to national security.
Continue Reading >> The Associated Press | April 9, 2011
Indian Army Commander: China’s Presence in Pakistan-administered Kashmir “Increasing Steadily”, China’s First Aircraft Carrier May Be Nearly Ready, Photos Released Days Before Robert Gates Visit to Beijing, Taiwan Inaugurates Missile Ships amid Buildup Vow to Offset the Perceived Military Threat from China, Former Minister of Railways Executed for Act of Sabotage and Espionage Charges in North Korea, Pyongyang Strengthens Submarine Drills Near Border, Threatens Action for US-South Korea Military Exercises, Sri Lankan Army Commander in Indonesia Defence Relations to Be Enhanced, Iran’s Oil Exports to China Increased 62%, Tehran Moscow Underline Increasing Cooperation in Oil Gas Fields, Russia Begins Refuelling Iran Nuclear Plant, China and Russia Fingered in German Industrial Espionage, Washington Gears for High-Stakes Sea-Based Missile Defense Test, With Eye on South China Sea U.S. Might Place Troops in Australia, Russia to Continue Military Conscription for Next 10-15 Years
China’s Presence in PoK “Increasing Steadily”: Army Commander
China’s presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is “increasing steadily” and its troops are “actually present” along the Line-of-Control, a top Army commander said, adding the Chinese footprints are “too close for comfort” for India.
“Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Northern Areas is increasing steadily… There are many people who are concerned about the fact that if there was to be hostility between us and Pakistan, what would be the complicity of Chinese. Not only they are in the neighbourhood but the fact that they are actually present and stationed along the LoC,” Northern Army commander Lt Gen KT Parnaik said here last week while addressing a seminar.
He said China’s links with Pakistan through PoK “lends strength” to the “nexus” between the two countries which is a cause of “great security concern” for India.
“As part of (China’s) ‘strings of pearls’ policy, Chinese footprints are too close for comfort,” Parnaik added.
The Army commander said such a nexus between the Chinese and Pakistani military “jeopardises our regional strategic interests in the long run and and facilitates speedy and enhanced deployment of Pakistan armed forces to complement China’s military operations and thus outranks India.”
He said China has been found to be involved in the construction of numerous roads and and several hydro-power projects inside PoK.
Beijing is laying a web of roads that run across areas as distant from each other as Skardu in PoK and Kunming in China near Myanmar border.
China has already constructed roads connecting all its highways to logistic centres and major defence installations that dot the border with India and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in south-eastern Jammu and Kashmir.
The Times of India | April 5, 2011
____________________
Chinese Warship May Be Nearly Ready
The Chinese state news agency has posted photographs of an aircraft carrier under reconstruction that appears to show the warship near completion. Captions with the photos said that the work would end soon and that the carrier was expected to sail later this year.
[...] Xinhua’s headline with the photos said: “Huge warship on the verge of setting out, fulfilling China’s 70-year aircraft carrier dreams.” One caption said: “A few days ago, domestic online military forums consecutively published photographs of the Varyag aircraft carrier being reconstructed at China’s Dalian shipyard. From the pictures, we can see that this project is entering its final stage.” The caption noted that construction on the ship’s bridge was almost done, with the exception of a radar system.
[...] The appearance of the photos came just days before Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates visited China. Military officials tested the fighter while Mr. Gates was in Beijing, which led to a puzzling and awkward diplomatic moment between Mr. Gates and President Hu Jintao.
Continue Reading >> The New York Times | April 7, 2011
____________________
Taiwan Inaugurates Missile Ships amid Buildup Vow
Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou inaugurated a squadron of missile boats Thursday as he pledged to continue the island’s military buildup to offset the perceived military threat from China.
The fleet of 10 locally manufactured missile boats joined the navy following a ceremony presided over by Ma at the northeastern naval base in Suao.
Ma, the initiator of detente with the island’s giant neighbour, said tensions with the mainland have eased significantly since he came to power in 2008 but insisted Taiwan needed a deterrent against Beijing which claims the island as part of its territory.
Continue Reading >> AFP | April 7, 2011
____________________
Two Former Ministers Executed in North Korea – Seoul Newspaper
[...] The newspaper reported that the North Korean former minister of railways, who occupied the post in 1998-2000, was executed over the blast case at a railway station in April 2004. This explosion was qualified as an act of sabotage targeted against a special train of a North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, who was on the way back from China.
The minister was accused of classified information leakage. The routes and the schedule of Kim’s trips were accessible only for his bodyguards and secretaries, as well as the railway minister.
Continue Reading >> ITAR-TASS | April 4, 2011
____________________
N. Korea Strengthens Submarine Drills Near Border
North Korea has intensified submarine drills near the tense Yellow Sea border with South Korea, putting Seoul defence officials on alert, a report said Thursday.
JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, citing a Seoul military source, said the North had been staging exercises involving five or six submarines at the Bipagot submarine base on its west coast since last month.
They feature the signature 325-tonne submarines as well as the new and bigger Shark-class submarines called K-300, it said.
“It’s highly unusual for them to beef up submarine drills in March so we’re intensely monitoring the situation,” said the source.
Continue Reading >> AFP | April 7, 2011
____________________
N. Korea Threatens Action for US-SKorea Drills
North Korea warned Friday that its military would not remain a “passive onlooker” if South Korea and the United States continued joint military drills, state media reported.
The threat came from Ri Yong-Ho, a vice marshal of the North’s armed forces, at a meeting attended by top government, military and party officials in Pyongyang.
Continue Reading >> AFP | April 8, 2011
____________________
SL, Indonesia Defence Relations to Be Enhanced
Sri Lankan Army Commander Lieutenant General Jagath Jayasuriya’s official visit to Indonesia has resulted in further strengthening the longstanding and excellent defence relations between the two nations and their armed forces.
Army sources say that it also provided opportunity to explore further defence cooperation between the two countries.
Continue Reading >> Daily News | April 6, 2011
____________________
Iran’s Oil Exports to China Increased in 2011
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s crude oil exports to China increased 62 percent in the first two months of 2011, Xinhua reported.
In January-February 2011, Iran’s crude exports to China increased 62 percent compared to the same period last year.
During the mentioned time, China has totally imported 45.73 million tons half of which has been supplied by the countries in the Middle East.
Iran’s crude oil exports to China reached 4.11 million tons during the two months. Iran has been second biggest crude supplier to China.
Saudi Arabia exported 8.19 million tons of oil to China and it was ranked first supplying 20 percent of the Asian country’s oil demand during the same period.
Mojnews | April 6, 2011
____________________
Tehran, Moscow Underline Increasing Cooperation in Oil, Gas Fields
Iranian Deputy Vice-President for Economic Affairs Ali Aqa Mohammadi and Chief Executive of Russia’s Gazprom Company Alexei Miller in a meeting in Moscow underscored the necessity for the further promotion of mutual cooperation between the two countries in the oil and gas sectors.
Continue Reading >> Fars New Agency | April 7, 2011
____________________
Russia Begins Refuelling Iran Nuclear Plant
Russia on Friday resumed loading fuel into Iran’s first nuclear power plant after it had to be removed because of an apparent technical fault, news reports said.
Continue Reading >> AFP | April 8, 2011
____________________
China and Russia Fingered in German Industrial Espionage Alert
Industrial espionage by China and Russia is becoming easier thanks to computer hacking, officials warned German business leaders on Thursday, adding that police need data logs to track computer break-ins.
A conference heard that the annual cost to German companies of data theft was at least 20 billion euros (nearly 30 billion dollars).
[...] “Russia and China are the main sources of so-called industrial espionage in Germany,” Schroeder said.
Continue Reading >> Monsters and Critics | April 7, 2011
____________________
U.S. Gears for High-Stakes Missile Defense Test
The United States is preparing for its first test of a sea-based defense against longer-range missiles of a type that officials say could soon threaten Europe from Iran.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | April 7, 2011
____________________
With Eye on South China Sea, U.S. Might Place Troops in Australia
American troops might soon find themselves serving in Australia as the United States looks for better access to the South China Sea, the source of much friction between China and many other Pacific nations.
During testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Adm. Robert Willard, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said Australians would like to see an increase of U.S. military activities Down Under.
[...] U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he has a group studying the idea of U.S. troops rotating through existing Australian bases, but he doesn’t want to create any new permanent bases in the Pacific. And he remained diplomatic when asked whether such a plan would be about keeping China in check.
[...] The United States and Australia have been on the same side of every major war since World War I. Australia has the largest group of troops from a non-NATO country fighting in Afghanistan.
Continue Reading >> CNN | April 8, 2011
____________________
Russia to Continue Military Conscription for Next 10-15 Years – Medvedev
The Russian Armed Forces will continue using a mixture of conscripts and contracted recruits for the next 10-15 years, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday.
Russia is in the process of reforming its armed forces by shifting the focus away from a largely inefficient body of conscripted soldiers toward a smaller professional army.
Continue Reading >> RIA Novosti | April 4, 2011
Russia Set to Buy 500 Combat Vehicles from France Meant for the Federal Border Guards, Poland Intelligence Officials : 300 Foreign Diplomats in Country are Spies, U.S. Intelligence Chief Describes China and Russia as “Mortal Threats”, U.S. Vice President in Moscow, Meets Putin and Russian Opposition, Calls for “Political Modernization”, Urges Russia to Improve its “Business Climate”, Russia Warns U.S. Against Afghan Bases, Iran Opposes Long-Term U.S. Military Presence in Afghanistan, Afghan President : U.S. Apology for Afghan Deaths “Not Enough” Civilian Casualties By Foreign Troops “No Longer Acceptable” Decision on Permanent U.S. Bases Must Be in Afghan Hands Account for Neighbor Concerns, Afghan President’s Cousin “Mistakenly Killed” in an Overnight Raid By Nato Troops, U.S. Defense Secretary Warns Allies About “Precipitous” Exit from Afghanistan
Russia Set to Buy 500 Combat Vehicles from France
Russia is in talks with French military manufacturer Panhard on the purchase of 500 light armored vehicles for its border guards, a Russian military think-tank said on Friday.
“Negotiations are being held on [the purchase of] 3.1-ton light armored vehicles Vehicule Blinde Leger on a 4×4 wheel platform,” the Center for the Analysis of the World Arms Trade said on its website, citing Panhard Chairman Christian Mons.
The contract could amount to $260 million, the statement said.
The vehicles are meant for the Federal Security Service border guards.
Russia is also continuing talks with France on a $2 billion contract to buy Mistral class helicopter carriers for the Russian Navy.
RIA Novosti | March 11, 2011
____________________
Poland Intelligence Officials Says 300 Foreign Diplomats in Country are Agents
Poland’s leading intelligence agency believes there are about 300 foreign spies working in the country.
The Internal Security Agency gave the figure Thursday amid efforts to enact a law that would make any espionage illegal in Poland.
In a separate report the agency said Poland expelled a Pakistani from the country in April 2010 for trying to conduct logistical work for a terrorist group.
The news agency PAP quoted the head of the security agency, Krzysztof Bondaryk, as saying that the man was suspected of ties to the Pakistan-based Islamist rebel group, Lashkar-e-Toiba, which is believed to be behind the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India.
The Canadian Press | March 10, 2011
____________________
U.S. Intelligence Chief Alarms Senators By Calling China, Russia “Threats”
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper caused a stir Thursday during an appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee when he described China and Russia as “mortal threats” to the U.S.
His remarks, coming in response to a question from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), caused concern among senators of both parties.
Continue Reading >> NPR | March 10, 2011
____________________
U.S. Vice President Meets Putin, Russian Opposition
In a speech wrapping up his two-day visit to Moscow, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has reiterated Washington’s support for Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WT) because it will lead to greater trade between the two countries.
But Biden also urged Russia to improve its business climate, saying fears of abuse of property rights and other legal abuses are a “fundamental obstacle” for many potential investors.
Speaking at Moscow State University, Biden said that “it’s better for America and I believe better for Russia to be able to trade with each other under predictable and transparent rules.”
The vice president added that the Kremlin’s drive to modernize the economy will not succeed without “political modernization.”
Continue Reading >> Radio Free Europe | March 11, 2011
____________________
Russia Warns US Against Afghan Bases
Russia has warned the US against setting up permanent military bases in Afghanistan, saying the move could undermine peacemaking efforts and anger neighbors.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has confirmed US plans to set up permanent bases in the war-torn country to enable US troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond the 2014 deadline.
Karzai says the US officials are in talks with the Afghan government in this regard.
“This information makes one think and raises questions,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
“Why will US military bases be needed if the terrorist threat in … Afghanistan is ended?”
“Will Kabul be able to combine negotiations on a long-term American military presence with the reconciliation process? How will Afghanistan’s neighbors view the deployment of a foreign country’s military bases near their territory?” Moscow questioned.
Continue Reading >> Press TV | February 19, 2011
____________________
Iran Opposes Long-Term US Presence in Afghanistan
Iran’s interior minister spoke out against a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan Tuesday, as the American Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited his country’s troops in the warring country.
“(Iran) is definitely against the the deployment, presence of foreign forces and establishment of US permanent bases in Afghanistan,” Mostafa Mohammad Najjar told a press conference in Kabul.
“The permanent bases would further complicate the conditions in the region and in Afghanistan.”
The minister’s Afghan counterpart, Besmullah Mohammadi, praised Iran as a neighbour who “has always helped in reconstruction and ensuring security in Afghanistan.”
Continue Reading >> AFP | March 8, 2011
____________________
U.S. Apology for Afghan Deaths “Not Enough” : Karzai
Afghan President Hamid Karzai told General David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, on Sunday his apology for a foreign air strike that killed nine children last week was “not enough.”
At a meeting with his security advisers at which Petraeus was present, Karzai said civilian casualties by foreign troops were “no longer acceptable” to the Afghan government or to the Afghan people, Karzai’s palace said in a statement.
Civilian casualties caused by NATO-led and Afghan forces hunting insurgents have again become a major source of friction between Karzai and his Western backers.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | March 8, 2011
____________________
Karzai : Decision on Permanent US Bases Must Be in Afghan Hands, Account for Neighbor Concerns
Afghanistan’s president says any decision on a permanent U.S. military presence in the country must be made by Afghans and take into account the concerns of neighboring countries.
President Hamid Karzai said Saturday that a number of American officials have raised the issue of establishing permanent U.S. bases in the country. He didn’t say whether any formal requests had been made.
Karzai didn’t rule out the possibility of the U.S. establishing permanent bases. But he says any decision should be made in the context of Afghans assuming greater authority over the country, and not being subject to “foreign influence.”
He added that the decision would need to take into consideration the views of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries that include Iran, Pakistan and China.
Newser | February 19, 2011
____________________
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s Cousin Mistakenly Killed By Nato Troops
A relative of Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai was mistakenly killed by Nato troops yesterday.
Yar Muhammad Khan was at his home near Kandahar when he was shot dead in an overnight raid.
Nato says it is investigating and the president’s brother Ahmad Wali Karzai, head of Kandahar provincial council, said: “There were operations taking place near his house. He was killed by mistake.”
The victim, said to be the president’s cousin in his 60s, apparently left the house at night carrying a weapon.
His death comes just days after President Karzai lashed out at US-led forces over the accidental killing of nine boys in Kunar province.
A spokesman yesterday said: “The president once again calls on Nato forces to avoid killing civilians.”
The Daily Mirror | March 11, 2011
____________________
Defense Secretary Robert Gates Warns U.S. Allies About “Precipitous” Exit from Afghanistan
Speaking at a NATO meeting, Robert Gates says, ‘There is too much talk about leaving and not enough talk about getting the job done right’ in Afghanistan. His remarks are seen as an attempt to keep allies from using a planned U.S. drawdown as a pretext for withdrawing large numbers of troops.
Continue Reading >> Los Angeles Times | March 11, 2011
Russia Demands Punishment for Japanese Radicals Who Desecrated Flag, to Build Bangladesh’s First Nuclear Plant, Mongolia to Build Railway Link to Russian Port to Avoid “Overdependence on China”, Russia Ratifies Deal with U.S. Allowing Transit for Military Equipment and Personnel Across Russia to NATO Forces in Afghanistan Easing Reliance on Convoy Routes through Pakistan, Former Pakistan Chief of Army Staff : Nuclear Scientist AQ Khan is “Next Target of U.S. Agents”, India Rated “High Risk” Economy for Investors, Chinese Envoy : Pakistan Can Be Economic Powerhouse, China and Pakistan to Enhance Military Co-operation, “Have Strategy to Invade India and Nepal”, Sarah Palin to Visit India, Bangladesh’s Army Chief in Sri Lanka on “Goodwill Visit”
Russia to Demand Punishment for Japanese Radicals Who Desecrated Flag
The Russian embassy in Tokyo is preparing a note to the Japanese foreign ministry demanding to launch criminal investigation into the recent desecration of the Russian flag, a diplomat said.
Japanese right-wing campaigners dragged the Russian flag along the ground outside the Russian Embassy in Tokyo on February 7, demanding the return of a group of disputed Pacific islands. The embassy sent a protest note to the Japanese Foreign Ministry just after the incident.
Later that day, the Russian embassy in Tokyo had also received an envelope containing a bullet and a letter which said “The Northern Territories are Japanese land.”
Continue Reading >> RIA Novosti | February 22, 2011
____________________
Russia to Build Bangladesh’s First Nuclear Plant
Russia has agreed to build energy-starved Bangladesh’s first nuclear power plant, which will generate a total of 2,000 megawatt of electricity.
Bangladesh’s decades-old gas-fired power plants are unable to generate enough electricity for the country’s 150 million people. Businesses complain that the shortages interfere with production.
Continue Reading >> The Daily Telegraph | February 25, 2011
____________________
Mongolia to Build Railway Link to Russian Port
Land-locked Mongolia will build a 1,000 km (620 mile) railway to enable it to export its vast but largely untapped mineral wealth via a Russian port.
[...] Analysts say Mongolia’s government plans to build the Russian route because it is worried about overdependence on China, its southern neighbour and a huge market for Mongolia’s resources.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | February 22, 2011
____________________
Russia Ratifies Military Transit Deal with U.S.
Russia’s parliament approved a deal with the United States on Friday to allow transit for military equipment and personnel across Russia to the NATO force in Afghanistan, easing reliance on Pakistan as a transit route.
[...] Currently, about 80 percent of NATO’s supplies cross through Pakistan. But NATO has been trying to reduce its dependence on convoy routes through Pakistan where they are prey to Islamist militant attacks.
[...] The transit deal stops short of opening the Russian route for weapons for the NATO mission in Afghanistan, where Moscow fought a disastrous 1979-89 war which still haunts Russia and which killed 15,000 Soviet troops.
Russia’s NATO envoy has said the deal would not allow NATO to ship tanks or combat-ready armored personnel carriers (APCs) through Russian territory.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | February 25, 2011
____________________
Former Pak Army Chief Claims Nuclear Scientist AQ Khan is “Next Target of U.S. Agents”
Former Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General (r) Mirza Aslam Beg has claimed that the American agents’ network is spread throughout the country, and that their next target is disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan.
[...] Khan is known as the architect of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, and is accused of illegally transferring nuke know-how to China, North Korea and Iran.
Continue Reading >> Sify | February 26, 2011
____________________
India Rated ‘Extreme Risk’ Economy for Investors
India – along with Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria and the Philippines – has been rated a ‘high risk’ growth economy for investors. In a ranking of 175 countries by the Global Risks Atlas 2011 released this week, Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan have been dubbed ‘extreme risk’ nations because of weak governance, internal conflicts and regional instability.
Continue Reading >> Sify | February 25, 2011
____________________
Pakistan Can be Economic Powerhouse : Chinese Envoy
Pakistan is a gifted nation that fulfils all the prerequisites to become an economic power, a diplomat said on Friday.
Addressing business community at the residence of Raza Khan, Chairman Coordination Committee of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Ambassador of China to Islamabad Liu Jian said that improved law and order coupled with continuity of enabling economic policies can attract huge investment in this great business destination.
[...] The ambassador said that the current bilateral trade volume between the two countries stood at $8.7 billion, up by $2 billion from last year, which is unsatisfactory as it can be increased manifold.
Continue Reading >> The News International | February 20, 2011
____________________
China and Pakistan Pledge to Enhance Military Co-operation
[...] China attaches great importance and is devoted to pushing forward relations between the two militaries, Chen Bingde, Chief of General Staff of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, told visiting General Khalid Shameem Wynne, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee of Pakistan.
China is willing to work with Pakistan to develop the mechanism of defense and security talks, deepen strategic cooperation and contribute to the peace, stability and common development in the region and the world, Chen said.
[...] The Pakistani army is willing to continue to strengthen friendly communication and cooperation with the Chinese army, and make more efforts to safeguard the two countries’ development and security interests.
Continue Reading >> Defence Professionals | February 24, 2011
____________________
China, Pakistan Have Strategy to Invade India: Mulayam Singh
Alleging that China and Pakistan are having “a strategy to invade India,” Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav on Tuesday asked Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to give an assurance to Parliament that the country is safe from a possible external aggression.
“China and Pakistan can invade India. They are having a strategy to invade India. The House must be assured that India is safe, when PM gives reply,” Yadav said in the Lok Sabha participating in a discussion on the motion of thanks to the President for her address to Parliament.
Referring to developments in Ladakh, Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh where China is allegedly building Army threatening India’s sovereignty, he said, “They are occupying one inch of territory every day. We could not regain our lost territory. They are claiming our land.”
The former defence minister said he was aware that China is ready to attack India.
“China is our No 1 enemy. It is time to save our country,” he said.
“Their armed forces are ready. They may invade at any time. Nepal would also be occupied,” Mulayam feared and called for a “Himalayan policy” to check a possible Chinese invasion.
[...] Criticising the country’s foreign policy, he said, it is in the hands of the US.
“Who are our friends? We don’t have any friends like USSR,” said the leader, whose party has 22 MPs who support the government from outside.
[...] He said both Nepal and Sri Lanka used to enjoy good relations with India in the past but that is not so now.
Continue Reading >> The Times of India | February 22, 2011
____________________
Sarah Palin to Visit India Next Month
Republican leader Sarah Palin will make her first trip to India next month to attend a conference and speak on her vision of America.
Continue Reading >> The Economic Times | February 24, 2011
____________________
Bangladesh’s Army Chief Here on Goodwill Visit
General Mohammed Abdul Mubeen, Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff, at the invitation of his Sri Lankan counterpart, arrives in Sri Lanka on Wednesday (23) on a five-day goodwill visit.
Continue Reading >> Ministry of Defence | February 22, 2011
Russia Summons U.S. Envoy Over Japan Islands Dispute, Restates Kuril Position, Japan “Shrugs its Shoulders”, Creates Spy Agency Targeting North Korea and China for First Time After Second World War, China Calls for Talks on North Korea, Rejects American’s Appeal of Spy Charge, U.S. Dismisses Bilateral Talks with Pyongyang, Wikileaks Cables Show China Using Debt to Pressure U.S. on Taiwan, Chinese Regime Portrayed as Clamping Down to Prevent Middle-East-Style Protests, Former U.S. Defense Chief Backs Sale of F-16 Jets to Taiwan, North Korea Reportedly Showing Signs of Nuclear Test, Building New Missile Launch Site, Conflict Looms Over U.S. Military Presence in Australia, U.S. to Boost Naval Forces in Asia, Warns China on Pacific Provocation as China Develops Aircraft Carrier, South Korea Spied on Indonesian Delegation, Indonesia Denies Report, to Observe Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, Turkey to Sell Armoured Combat Vehicles to Malaysia
Russia Summons U.S. Envoy Over Japan Islands Dispute
The Russian foreign ministry on Monday summoned the US ambassador to Moscow over comments in which Washington reportedly backed the Japanese position in a simmering territorial row with Russia.
[...] “In this connection, the Russian Federation once again laid out it principled and unwavering position on Russia’s sovereignty over the south Kurils.”
Continue Reading >> AFP | February 21, 2011
____________________
Russia Restates Kuril Position While Japan Shrugs its Shoulders
[...] Tokyo-based Moscow News reader Keiran Drea said that the issue was making little impact on most Japanese people – despite scenes of violence outside the Russian embassy, which got significant coverage in Russia.
Continue Reading >> The Moscow News | February 22, 2011
____________________
Japan Creating Spy Agency for First Time After Second World War
Japan is creating an espionage agency for the first time since the end of the Second World War, amid growing tensions with its superpower neighbour China and nuclear-armed North Korea.
[...] The new unit, modelled on MI6 and the CIA, will also be tasked with gathering information to prevent terrorist attacks against Japanese targets, according to a US government cable obtained by WikiLeaks.
[...] worsening of relations with China and the unpredictability of the North Korean regime means that Tokyo can no longer rely on its allies for intelligence about the activities of its enemies.
China and Japan clashed over the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea last year, and Japan has become increasingly apprehensive of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.
Continue Reading >> The Daily Telegraph | February 21, 2011
____________________
China Again Calls for 6-Party Talks Soon
Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi again emphasized the need for the resumption soon of the stalled multinational talks on North Korea’s denuclearization, indicating the lingering opinion gap with Seoul over how to deal with the North’s ongoing nuclear ambitions.
Continue Reading >> Korea Herald | February 23, 2011
____________________
China Rejects American’s Appeal of Spy Charge
A Chinese court on Friday rejected an appeal by American geologist Xue Feng against his eight-year jail sentence for spying, despite a long-running campaign by Washington to free him, including a personal plea by President Obama.
[...] Mr. Xue’s sentencing last summer sent a chill through foreign investors in China and the people who make their money analyzing its economy. He was found guilty of obtaining and trafficking in state secrets after he unearthed information on Chinese oil wells for his former employer—U.S. petroleum research firm IHS Inc.
Continue Reading >> The Wall Street Journal | February 18, 2011
____________________
U.S. Dismisses Bilateral Talks with Pyongyang
The United States Tuesday dismissed any bilateral dialogue with North Korea on easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, urging the North to first improve ties with South Korea.
Continue Reading >> Korea JoongAng Daily | February 24, 2011
____________________
Wikileaks Cables Show China Used Debt to Pressure U.S. on Taiwan
China has sought to use its massive U.S. debt holdings to influence American financial policy and deter arms sales to Taiwan, according to diplomatic cables published by Wikileaks.
Continue Reading >> National Journal | February 22, 2011
____________________
China Clamping Down to Prevent Mideast-Style Protests
A previously unknown group has called on the Chinese to replicate the popular protests in the Middle East by staging their own peaceful “jasmine rallies” in cities across China every Sunday afternoon, to demand an end to corruption, greater accountability and an independent judiciary.
Continue Reading >> The Washington Post | February 23, 2011
____________________
Former U.S. Defense Chief Backs Sale of F-16 Jets to Taiwan
Washington, Feb. 22 (CNA) Former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday that he supports the sale of U.S. F-16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act.
[...] But Rumsfeld said that if a cross-strait conflict erupts, it would be an example of terribly handled diplomacy, because such a conflict would be totally unnecessary.
However, he said, he thinks there is little possibility that such a conflict will occur since both Taiwan and China have been engaged in economic and tourist exchanges.
Rumsfeld said he believes Taipei and Beijing can solve their differences with good behavior and wise diplomacy.
Continue Reading >> Focus Taiwan | February 23, 2011
____________________
North Korea Shows Signs of 3rd Nuke Test
Seoul is closely monitoring activities at a North Korean nuclear site amid signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a third nuclear test, government sources said Sunday.
The vigilance comes after South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities spotted the North digging additional tunnels at the Musudan-ri Launch Facility for a possible underground atomic test, a source told Yonhap News Agency.
Continue Reading >> Korea Times | February 20, 2011
____________________
North Korea ‘Building’ New Missile Launch Site
North Korea appears close to finishing a new missile launch site, according to analysis of satellite images taken in the last month, which show an almost completed 100ft tall launch tower, suggesting a step forward in Pyongyang’s inter-continental ballistic missile programme.
Continue Reading >> The Guardian | February 16, 2011
____________________
Conflict Looms Over US Military Presence in Australia
For two decades, the issue of US bases in Australia has remained dormant. The Government and community seem to have become comfortable with their presence, as long as they are perceived as passive.
[...] Nevertheless, the issue of US bases might be about to re-emerge as a hot-button political issue.
Continue Reading >> ABC | February 22, 2011
____________________
U.S. to Boost Naval Forces as China Develops Carrier
The U.S. navy will continue to upgrade its military capabilities in the Pacific given its steadfast commitment to the region, a U.S. vice admiral said on Monday, while urging China’s growing navy to avoid provocation.
[...] “It is our sincere hope that as China continues to develop a blue-water navy, one which may soon include an aircraft carrier, it will employ that navy in a way that is responsible and constructive,” said Vice admiral Scott Van Buskirk during a visit to Hong Kong.
[...] Following on from Gate’s comments that China’s military advances in cyber and anti-satellite warfare technology could challenge the ability of U.S. forces to operate in the Pacific, Van Buskirk said the United States would upgrade its hardware there.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | February 21, 2011
____________________
Alleged Espionage Attempt Embarrasses South Korea
[...] It was reported earlier this week that three unidentified people who broke into a hotel room of visiting Indonesian presidential envoys last week were actually officials at South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).
The intruders intruded into the hotel room in downtown Seoul in an apparent attempt to steal laptops and fled after being walked in on by a member of the Indonesian delegation.
The Indonesian delegation, led by Indonesia’s coordinating economic minister Hatta Rajasa, was visiting Seoul last week at the invitation of President Lee Myung-bak. The delegates, six of whom are ministerial-level officials, asked for support of the South Korean government and local firms for their major economic projects.
Continue Reading >> People’s Daily | February 22, 2011
____________________
Indonesia Denies Report South Korean Spies Stole Military Data
The South Koreans who entered the hotel room of Indonesian officials visiting Seoul didn’t steal military data, Indonesia’s Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said, denying a report by the Chosun Ilbo newspaper.
The incident occurred on a different floor than the one officials from the Indonesian Defense Ministry were staying, Yusgiantoro told reporters in Jakarta today. An official from the Indonesian Industry Ministry saw the South Koreans in his room and a laptop that was taken from the room was returned, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said.
Chosun reported today South spies broke into the Lotte Hotel room in Central Seoul on Feb. 16 to find out what price Indonesia may bid for weapons and trainer jets. The report cited an unidentified South Korean government official, and didn’t say how the person knew the details of the case.
Bloomberg | February 22, 2011
____________________
Indonesia to Observe Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict
Amidst the recent border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, both countries have accepted Indonesia to observe both sides of the border, officials said Tuesday.
An Indonesian team of observers will be deployed to the region where they will observe and report accurately, as well as impartially on complaints of violations and submitting its findings to each party, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) said.
Continue Reading >> Channel 6 News | February 22, 2011
____________________
Turkey to Sell Armoured Combat Vehicles to Malaysian Military
Turkish defense industry company FNSS signed Tuesday a $600 million deal with Malaysia’s DEFTECH to sell armoured combat vehicles to Malaysian military.
[...] The deal is important for Turkish defense industry as it is the largest amount in defense industry exports of the country at one time.
Continue Reading >> World Bulletin | February 23, 2011
U.S. and Kyrgyzstan Sign Air Base Fuel Supply Deal, Moscow to Help Kyrgyzstan Enter Customs Union, Russia and Tajikistan Debate Sharing Military Base, Japan Eyes Uzbekistan’s Rich Natural Resources
Kyrgyzstan and the United States signed an agreement on Tuesday on jet fuel supplies to a U.S. air base in the Central Asian state, replacing previous deals with a more transparent system.
The new government in Kyrgyzstan, which also hosts a Russian air base, has tried to remove opaque supply schemes which it says favoured the clan of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, deposed in a popular uprising last April.
The Manas base, located at Kyrgyzstan’s main civilian airport outside the capital Bishkek, is a vital transit point for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.
Continue Reading >> Reuters | February 8, 2011
____________________
Russia to Help Kyrgyzstan Enter Customs Union – Russia’s Customs Chief
Russia could share experience with Kyrgyzstan on entering the Customs Union, currently made up of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, Andrei Belyaninov, the head of Russia’s Customs Service said on Thursday.
In late December, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev said the country was interested in joining the Customs Union.
[...] The creation of a common economic space stipulating the free movement of goods, assets and labor force between the countries is to become the next stage of their integration.
Continue Reading >> RIA Novosti | February 10, 2011
____________________
Russia and Tajikistan Debate Sharing Ayni Base
Russia and Tajikistan continue to negotiate over the use of the Ayni military airport near Dushanbe. And the key issue under debate now is whether the base would be a solely Russian facility, or a joint Tajikistan-Russia operation. That’s according to Tajikistan political analyst Alexander Sodiqov, writing on Jamestown’s Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Continue Reading >> EurasiaNet | February 9, 2011
____________________
Japan Eyes Uzbekistan’s Rich Natural Resources
Japan and Uzbekistan agreed Wednesday to strengthen their strategic bilateral partnership in a wide range of fields, including the development of natural resources such as uranium and rare metals.
[...] “Uzbekistan . . . is geopolitically a very important country to Japan, and at the same time it is a strategically important partner from the viewpoint of energy and resources,” Kan told Karimov at their summit.
Continue Reading >> The Japan Times | February 10, 2011
Afghan President : U.S. Seeking Permanent Military Bases, U.S. Postpones Meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan, Threatens to Cut Aid to Pakistan, Pakistan Issues Arrest Warrant for Former President Exiled in London, U.S. National Who Trained London Suicide Bombers Released for “Exceptional Cooperation”, Former Senior Taliban Member Visits Britain for Secret Insurgency-Ending Talks
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has confirmed that the Obama Administration has been in secret talks with him to formalize a system of permanent military bases across the war torn nation, effectively pledging to keep the unpopular occupation a permanent aspect of life in Afghanistan.
Continue Reading >> Press TV | February 9, 2011
____________________
U.S. Postpones Meeting With Pakistan and Afghanistan
The United States this weekend postponed high-level talks to be held in Washington with Pakistan and Afghanistan, a sign of the displeasure with Pakistan over the arrest of an American official accused of murder.
The talks scheduled for Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, held annually to discuss the war in Afghanistan, involve foreign ministers and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
[...] The State Department did not give a precise public explanation for the postponement of the talks except to say that “in light of the political changes in Pakistan” the talks would not go ahead.
But American officials said the talks were postponed because it was unlikely they would produce anything worthwhile in the charged atmosphere between Pakistan and the United States.
Continue Reading >> The New York Times | February 13, 2011
____________________
US Threatens to Cut Aid to Pakistan
US congress members have threatened to stop aid to Pakistan unless it releases an American detained over shooting deaths of two Pakistani men.
[...] Many observers have questioned whether Davis was an ordinary diplomat.
Three members of the US House of Representatives drove home the point on a visit to Pakistan, telling Yusuf Raza Gilani, the Pakistani prime minister, that congress was working on its budget and looking for areas to cut.
Continue Reading >> Al-Jazeera | February 9, 2011
____________________
Pakistan Issues Arrest Warrant for Pervez Musharraf
A Pakistani anti-terrorism court has issued an arrest warrant for former military ruler Pervez Musharraf over the assassination of an opposition leader. [...] Mr Musharraf – who lives in self-imposed exile in London – denies the allegations. His spokesman, Fawad Chaudhry, said Mr Musharraf had no intention of returning to Pakistan for the hearing.
Continue Reading >> BBC News | February 11, 2011
____________________
Terrorist Who Trained 7/7 Bomber Released After Five Years
A terrorist who was jailed for founding a training camp where the leader of the July 7 London suicide bombers were taught to make bombs has been released from prison after serving less than five years, it was claimed.
American Mohammed Junaid Babar walked free just four and a half years into a sentence that could have lasted as long as 70, prompting claims he may have been acting as an informant.
The decision to sentence him to “time served” due to what a New York judge termed his “exceptional co-operation” dating back to before his arrest led to suggestions Babar could have been helping US authorities even while helping to train the man who led the 2005 attacks on London.
[...] According to court documents Babar was sentenced to “time served” in court on December 10, six years after being arrested.
He had spent slightly more than four years in prison and two years on bail.
Continue Reading >> The Daily Telegraph | February 14, 2011
____________________
Former Senior Taliban Member Visits Britain
A former high-ranking member of the Taliban has made the first visit to Britain by a member of the regime to take part in secret negotiations.
Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaeef, a member of the Taliban government before September 11, visited London last week amid closely controlled security.
Zaeef, who is still said to be close to Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, attended a closed conference part funded by the Foreign Office to discuss peace proposals aimed at ending the fighting.
The Taliban leader arrived in Britain on Wednesday and stayed in a central London hotel. He was banned from speaking publicly by the terms of his visa but is thought to have held private meetings with British officials.
Britain is attempting to facilitate talks between Hamid Karzai, the Afghan President, and senior members of the Taliban.
A senior Foreign Office official said last month that senior members of the Taliban have been putting out “feelers” about making peace with the Western-backed government in Kabul.
Continue Reading >> The Daily Telegraph | February 13, 2011
U.S. Wants Chain of Anti-Russian Bases in Central Asia
Russia has been warning Tajikistan that the U.S. wants to overthrow President Emomali Rakhmon for the sake of eliminating Russian influence in the country and creating “a string of anti-Russia military bases from Baghram (Afghanistan) to Manas (Kyrgyzstan).” That’s according to a U.S. State Department cable just released by WikiLeaks. It recounts a conversation with then-U.S. ambassador to Tajikistan Richard Hoagland and Tajikistan’s ambassador to Washington, Homrahon Zaripov, who was back home in Dushanbe at the time.
[...] This is, of course, before the relatively West-friendly Dmitry Medvedev came to power in Moscow and the Obama administration’s “reset” with Russia, so it’s worth wondering if this attitude still pervades. A more recent cable, from February 2010, describes deteriorating Russia-Tajikistan relations, but doesn’t much touch on Russia’s perception of what the U.S. is doing in Tajikistan.
Continue Reading >> Eurasianet | February 5, 2011
Russia Plans to Recruit 70 Thousand Military Officers
The Kremlin says it will nearly double the military wages and increase the number of military officers.
Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday police and other law enforcement agencies will also get wage hikes starting next January.
Russia’s Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said that an army lieutenant will get an average monthly wage of 50,000 rubles (about $1,700), about twice as much as the current salary.
He also said that the military will also increase the number of officers. Over the past two years the number of officers was reduced from 355,000 to 150,000.
Serdyukov was quoted by news agencies as saying Wednesday that the armed forces will now need 70,000 more officers because of the plans to form additional units.
The Canadian Press | February 2, 2011
Crouching Dollar, Floating Yuan
The Chinese President Hu Jintao is enjoying the red-carpet treatment in Washington DC against a backdrop of increasing tension between his country and the US.
As the two leaders meet, a number of US lawmakers are demanding again that China allow its currency to float against the dollar – arguing that a weak yuan is hurting American business.
But is China really listening? Its global expansion takes in every corner of the globe. And its influence is growing. Will this be China’s century? Will the US have to live in China’s shadow? Inside Story, with presenter David Foster, discusses.
Al Jazeera English | January 20, 2011
China to Station Troops in North Korea
China is in discussions with North Korea about stationing its troops in the isolated state for the first time since 1994, a South Korean newspaper reported Saturday.
The Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted an anonymous official at the presidential Blue House as saying that Beijing and Pyongyang recently discussed details of stationing Chinese soldiers in the North’s northeastern city of Rason.
The official said the soldiers would protect Chinese port facilities, but the location also gives access to the Sea of Japan (East Sea), while a senior security official was quoted as saying it would allow China to intervene in case of North Korean instability.
AFP | January 15, 2011
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition
The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the region. In recent years, Iran has pursued this strategy by building up its capability to pose a missile, nuclear, and asymmetric threat; exploiting the Arab-Israeli conflict; attempting to discredit the US; expanding its influence over Iraq’s Shi’ites; and by making direct country-to-country contacts with each of its Southern Gulf neighbors designed to increase its influence and leverage.
The report shows that the US has sought to contain Iran, and limit its influence over the Southern Gulf countries, by strengthening relations with each Arab Gulf state, working with allies like France and Britain, by helping to negotiate an Arab-Israeli peace, and by establishing a mix of US, Iraqi, and Southern Gulf capabilities for deterrence and defense that will contain Iran. As part of this effort, the US seeks to limit Iran’s ability to use its political influence, ties to other regional states, influence over Iraq, exploitation of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and capabilities for asymmetric warfare to dominate the region.
Saudi Arabia is now the most important US ally in the Gulf, and will remain so as long as Iraq’s political and strategic alignments are uncertain- and Iraq remains a weak power caught up in its own internal struggles. This does not mean that Saudi Arabia’s interests always coincide with those of the US: they do not. It does mean that the US and Saudi Arabia share a common interest in limiting and containing Iran, and in ensuring the security of the Gulf and the stable flow of Gulf oil exports.
This relationship is reinforced by a long history of US and Saudi military cooperation and the US role in arming and developing Saudi forces. Furthermore, both nations have a common interest in dealing with the challenges of terrorism, the problems posed by Yemen, and the growing instability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. While both countries are divided in their approach to resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, they share a common interest in ending it and removing it as a cause for extremist action and a political tool that Iran can exploit in dealing with Lebanon, the Palestinians, and Arab popular anger.
The end result is a complex set of relations shaped by Saudi competition with Iran and the factors that shape Saudi cooperation with US policy, by US policy towards Saudi Arabia and how it uses this policy to confront Iran, and finally, by Iranian policy towards Saudi Arabia and how it also uses bilateral relations to compete with the US.
Strategic completion in the Gulf, then, plays out with the US and Saudi on one side, and Iran on the other, each side seeking to advance their interests in each separate Gulf country based on the complex political context there. However, the smaller GCC countries display various levels of support for each side and play distinctly different roles in this competition:
Kuwait is most similar to Saudi Arabia in its approach to US-Iranian strategic competition. It considers Iran a serious threat to its stability because of its perceived interference in Kuwait’s Shi’ite population, its growing military capabilities, and its nuclear program. Kuwait is one of the US’s major military allies in the region, and cooperates with the US on a number of levels, including providing essential bases for US troops.
Bahrain, with a Sunni elite and a majority Shi’ite population, feels threatened by perceived Iranian meddling within the disaffected Shi’ite population. It tempers this threat by maintaining strong political and security relations with both the US and Saudi Arabia. It is the home to the 5th Fleet headquarters and receives major US military funding.
UAE practices a more nuanced approach because of the difference in perceptions of Iran in each Emirate. The dispute for control over the islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs shapes perceptions of Iran everywhere except in Dubai. Dubai maintains positive relations with Iran because of shared financial and trade networks. The UAE is also using its wealth to purchase advanced weapons from the US, and likewise strengthen its security ties to the US.
Oman has a unique role in the region. It is generally accommodating towards Iran, has tensions with Saudi Arabia, close ties to the UK, and serves as a major strategic ally for US military and diplomatic interests. As a result, it often plays the role of intermediary and has some diplomatic leverage over Iran.
Qatar has exploited the strategic competition between US and Saudi interests and Iranian interests in order to create an independent role in the region. Within this role, it tilts more towards Iran than Saudi Arabia while also hosting major US military bases to deter Iranian pressure.
Yemen is increasingly a broken state whose regime is too caught up in internal issues and threats to pay a significant role in the competition. However, a variety of factors make it strategically important, although often as a liability rather than an asset. Both Iran and the US accuse the other side of meddling in Yemen’s internal affairs but both desire some level of stability there.
As the US strengthens its military partnership with the individual Gulf states in an effort to both decrease the threat of terrorist activity and to combat Iranian influence, the strategic competition with Iran will continue to heat up. This competition in the Gulf is subject to a number of variables in the current political system, including the character of the future Iraqi government, the effect of international sanctions on Iran’s policy calculus, Saudi succession, developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and global economic stability.
In spite of these variants, it seems likely that the competition will play out in much the same way as it has in recent years. Bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be characterized by public accommodation and underscored by fundamental distrust and competition in the economic, political, and military realms. Iran will continue to exploit divisions between the other Southern Gulf states in order to gain influence and undermine the US policy of military and security cooperation in the Gulf.
The US will continue to strengthen its military partnership with Saudi Arabia based on their mutual interest in deterring the Iranian threat to the Gulf’s economic stability. In order to achieve this, the US will continue to supply the Saudis with counters to Iran’s growing naval asymmetric and missile capabilities. However, the US will simultaneously seek to avoid arming the Saudis at the expense of other Arab Gulf countries, or Israel. As a result, the stepping up of arms deals with Saudi Arabia will be followed by a series of deals with other Gulf allies, including the likely provision of the THAAD missile system to the UAE, and ongoing cooperation with all Gulf states to increase security cooperation.
What is not clear, however, is how or if Iranian foreign policy calculus will change in response to these developments, international sanctions, or domestic pressure. What is clear is that Iran and both the US and Saudi Arabia have legitimate and structural grounds for competition in Iraq, both economically and militarily. It is unlikely that these grounds for competition will disappear in the near future, and as a result, Iran will continue to compete with both the US and Saudi Arabia for influence in the region.
The full report: U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition
CSIS | December 6, 2010
China Considers Options After North Korean Strike
China Director Jennifer Richmond examines Beijing’s diplomatic options with Pyongyang after the Nov. 23 artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island.
Stratfor | November 30, 2010
China’s Rise in the Middle East
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was in China this month touting the “new cooperation paradigm” between Ankara and Beijing. Just a week earlier, a top political advisor to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao spent five days in Syria signing deals and planting olive trees in the Golan Heights. The Middle Kingdom, it seems, is planting deep roots in the Middle East these days.
The reach of the People’s Republic is far and wide, extending from the Far East to Africa to Latin America, and its interest in the Middle East is neither new nor surprising: China gets more than a quarter of its oil imports from the Persian Gulf and has billions invested in Iran’s oil sector. Recently, though, Beijing appears to be making greater headway, a development fueled by Washington’s creeping withdrawal from the region.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy | November 16, 2010
Oil Revenue Complicates South Sudan’s Referendum
Analyst Mark Schroeder examines how the fight over oil revenues will complicate South Sudan’s goal of becoming an independent nation in an early 2011 referendum on independence.
Stratfor | November 8, 2010
U.S. Support of Japanese Sovereignty over the Kuril Islands
Analyst Matt Gertken discusses U.S. support for Japanese sovereignty over the Russian-held Kuril Islands and looks at the pressure confronting Japan in the foreign policy realm as Washington becomes more involved in the region.
Statfor | November 3, 2010
India’s Strategic Future
Why India needs to move from “strategic autonomy” to strategic cooperation with the United States.
Unlike in Washington, where governments are noisy in articulating their worldviews, for the permanent bureaucracy that runs New Delhi’s foreign policy, silence is golden. But Delhi’s reluctance to articulate a grand strategy does not necessarily mean it does not have one. Since India embraced globalization at the turn of the 1990s, many of its traditional strategic objectives have evolved, and the pace of that evolution has gathered momentum as India’s economic growth has accelerated in recent years.
Yet the United States remains unclear about its potential ally’s goals and objectives. Despite significant advances in Indo-U.S. relations during George W. Bush’s presidency and bipartisan agreement in Washington to support India’s rise, Barack Obama’s administration has found it hard to make big strategic advances. U.S. officials dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan seem to find India — and particularly its reluctance to offer concessions on Kashmir that might presumably encourage Pakistan to cooperate more thoroughly in Afghanistan — part of the problem. American negotiators on climate change and trade find the notorious prickliness of the old non aligned India alive and well. And the Pentagon is frustrated in its efforts to build a partnership with a New Delhi that resists cooperation on U.S. terms. But American strategists should take heart: If Washington can be patient, endure an extended courtship, and above all take a longer-term view of the relationship with Delhi, it will find much to like about India’s foreign policy.
The problem for India’s top strategists is not that they don’t seek a grand bargain with the United States. It is about negotiating equitable terms. It is also about bringing along a political elite and bureaucracy that are adapting too slowly to the new imperatives of a stronger partnership with Washington. But make no mistake: Engagement with the United States has been the Indian establishment’s highest foreign-policy priority over the last decade and a half.
India’s grand strategy has four broad objectives. In all four areas, strategic cooperation with the United States is critical.
India’s first objective is to pacify the northwestern part of the subcontinent, or the AfPak region, as it is known in Washington. All of India’s great empire-states throughout the last 2,500 years, from the Mauryans to the British Raj, have had trouble controlling these turbulent lands across the Indus River that frame the subcontinent’s western frontier.
Indeed, ever since Alexander the Great and his army first arrived on the banks of the Indus, most foreign forces and alien ideologies have come to what is now India through the northwestern route. In the past, India managed to absorb the invaders and modify their ideologies. All it needed was sufficient time. But weakened by the subcontinent’s partition in 1947 and faced with U.S. and Chinese support for Pakistan during the Cold War, India has had little time and space to manage the conflict with its troublesome sibling to the northwest.
American commentators often discount the threat that Pakistan’s military poses to India. Indian strategists don’t have that luxury. Armed with nuclear weapons and allied with radical Islam, the Pakistani Army remains extremely dangerous — a situation compounded by America’s current dependence on Islamabad to pursue its objectives in Afghanistan and in the tribal areas across the border.
The challenge for India is not just about managing its differences with U.S. policies in Afghanistan and Pakistan. New Delhi has no choice but to work with Washington to stabilize its northwest. That in turn involves encouraging the United States to think very differently about Pakistan and its relations with Afghanistan and India. And that demands getting the United States to pressure the Pakistani Army to end its promotion of extremism in Afghanistan and India.
Both New Delhi and Washington want to move the AfPak region toward political moderation, economic modernization, and regional integration. Neither can achieve these objectives on their own. But they have so far failed to have an honest discussion about how to move forward together, let alone begin coordinating their policies.
India’s second objective is to become an indispensable power in the littorals of the Indian Ocean and southwestern Pacific. For nearly two centuries until partition, the British Raj was the source of stability and the main provider of security in these regions. But after independence in 1947, India chose an inward economic orientation and focused on the global mobilization of the Third World during the Cold War. Not surprisingly, India resented the dominance of the Anglo-American powers in its strategic backyard.
As the power of a rising China today radiates across the subcontinent, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific, balancing Beijing has become an urgent matter — especially given the relative decline of the United States. In the past, India balanced Beijing through a de facto alliance with the Soviet Union. Today, it needs a strategic partnership with the United States to ensure that China’s rise will continue to be peaceful. With Washington yet to make up its mind on how best to deal with Beijing, India has no option but to hedge against growing Chinese power as well as the dangers of a potential Sino-American condominium. This necessarily involves nuanced bilateral economic and political engagement with China, albeit with eyes wide open.
Meanwhile, New Delhi’s focus is on China’s neighbors. India is holding on to its old partnership with Moscow, stepping up its economic and security cooperation with Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia, and raising its economic and strategic profile in Southeast Asia and Australasia.
India’s third objective is to increase its weight in global governance and eventually emerge as a “rule-maker” in the international system. In that sense, India’s civil nuclear initiative with the Bush administration was as much about producing electric power as it was about redefining India’s position in the global nonproliferation regime. But U.S. support for India’s bid to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council has been elusive. The United States, instead, wants to test whether India is a “responsible stakeholder” in the negotiations on issues ranging from climate change to international trade. From India’s perspective, these American benchmarks have tended to be self-serving and defined by the latest intellectual fashion in Washington. India is prepared to engage on these issues and participate more fully in global decision-making bodies on the basis of its own enlightened self-interest, but is not prepared to take tests from anyone.
India’s fourth objective is to strengthen the factors that are critical for becoming a credible power on the regional and global stages. This involves sustaining its current high economic growth rate, consolidating its advantages in knowledge industries, providing education and skills to its younger population, and modernizing its armed forces and security agencies. On all these fronts, India needs deeper and more open cooperation with the United States through the integration of their advanced technology sectors, trade liberalization, opening the Indian education system to American universities and community colleges, U.S. investments in the Indian defense industry, and American expertise to upgrade Indian intelligence gathering and processing. New Delhi is already engaged with Washington on all these fronts, but the results remain way below potential.
Most of all, the United States needs to recognize that it is dealing with a new India. For too long, India saw itself as a weak, developing country unwilling to unlearn its anti-colonial grievances. Only in recent years has India begun to inch away from its previous focus on the chimera of “strategic autonomy” to emphasize its own role in shaping the regional and global environments.
In the past, India’s internal identity as a liberal democracy was in tension with its external image as the leader of the global south against the West. A rising India — with its robust democracy, thriving entrepreneurial capitalism, and expanding global interests — is bound to acquire a new identity as a champion of liberal international order.
What remains to be seen is whether the Obama administration can seize this moment. Obama has certainly talked the talk, but it is not clear whether his administration is ready to walk the walk to accommodate India’s rise. That might require a leap into the unknown — a historic revision of the international hierarchy of power — that so far, the United States has been unwilling or unable to take.
C. Raja Mohan
Foreign Policy | November 4, 2010
China Conducts a Massive Live-Fire Naval Drill Involving 100 Ships in South China Sea
China’s Marine Corps held major naval exercises on Tuesday in the South China Sea, state-run media reported on Wednesday, massing 1,800 troops and more than 100 ships, submarines and aircraft for a live-fire display of the nation’s growing military power.
The waters have been the scene of increased tensions between China and its neighbors this year over competing claims to islands and seabed mineral rights. But one prominent Chinese military analyst called the war games a routine annual event that was unrelated to those claims or recent American moves to shore up diplomatic ties with nations in the region.
The exercises, code-named Jiaolong 2010, were viewed by 200 military students from 40 nations who discussed the maneuvers with Chinese commanding officers, the Communist Party newspaper Global Times reported.
The newspaper quoted an unnamed officer as saying that the exercises were staged to showcase the marines, part of the People’s Liberation Army, and to gain advice from other nations’ militaries. It also quoted one military analyst, Li Jie, as saying that the maneuvers were staged in part because unnamed nations had intervened in the sea in recent years, “so it’s time to oppose these intervention with power politics.”
Chinese military officials accused the Pentagon of threatening China this summer after the United States announced plans to move an aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea, not 400 miles from Beijing, for joint exercises with South Korea. In a conciliatory gesture, the Navy moved the exercises to the Sea of Japan.
But Chinese acrimony — which had flared early in the year when the United States announced a $6.7 billion deal to sell weapons to Taiwan — was only heightened by an American offer to mediate the territorial disputes over islands in the region. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who made the initial offer, repeated it last week during a stop in Hanoi, rejecting Chinese arguments that Washington was interfering in its diplomatic affairs.
A former submarine officer who is now a leading military analyst on state television, Song Xiaojun, insisted that the Chinese exercises should be taken at face value. “It’s an ordinary exercise,” he said, driven in part by the military’s need to test its rapidly growing arsenal of ships, aircraft and weapons.
“It’s better not to take this as a kind of opposition between different parties,” he said. “It’s not like we’re talking about World War I or World War II, when countries were busy building vessels and competing. Those days are gone.”
David Yang contributed research.
The New York Times | November 3, 2010
Russia plans to build up Black Sea Fleet
Russia plans to add 18 new vessels to its Black Sea Fleet within the next decade after a landmark deal with Ukraine to extend the lease on the fleet’s base, a navy source was quoted by Interfax as saying on Monday.
Ukraine agreed in April to extend the Russian fleet’s Sevastopol base lease by 25 years in return for a 30 percent cut in gas prices, a step that underlined Kiev’s shift back towards Moscow after the election of President Viktor Yanukovich.
The fleet has fallen into disrepair in recent years, but Russia plans to add 18 new vessels, including at least six frigates and six diesel-powered submarines, Interfax news agency cited a source in Russia’s naval command as saying.
A spokesman for the navy declined to comment on the Interfax report.
Reuters | October 25, 2010
The center of Asia’s divide
New Delhi — Japan may have created the impression of having buckled under China’s pressure by releasing the Chinese fishing trawler captain. But the Japanese action helps move the spotlight back to China, whose rapid accumulation of power has emboldened it to aggressively assert territorial and maritime claims against its neighbors, from Japan to India.
Having earlier preached the gospel of its “peaceful rise,” China is no longer shy about showcasing its military capabilities and asserting itself on multiple fronts. While the Chinese leadership may gloat after forcing Tokyo to climb down and release the captain, the episode — far from shifting the Asian balance of power in Beijing’s favor — has only shown that China is at the center of Asia’s political divides.
China’s new stridency in its territorial and maritime disputes with its neighbors has helped highlight Asia’s central challenge to come to terms with existing boundaries by getting rid of the baggage of history that weighs down a number of interstate relationships. Even as Asia is becoming more interdependent economically, it is becoming more divided politically.
While the bloody wars in the first half of the 20th century have made war unthinkable today in Europe, wars in Asia during the second half of the 20th century did not resolve matters and have only accentuated bitter rivalries. A number of interstate wars have been fought in Asia since 1950, the year both the Korean War and the annexation of Tibet started. Those wars, far from settling or ending disputes, have only kept disputes lingering.
China, significantly, has been involved in the largest number of military conflicts. A recent Pentagon report has cited examples of how China carried out military preemption in 1950, 1962, 1969 and 1979 in the name of strategic defense. The report states: “The history of modern Chinese warfare provides numerous case studies in which China’s leaders have claimed military preemption as a strategically defensive act.
For example, China refers to its intervention in the Korean War (1950-1953) as the “War to Resist the United States and Aid Korea.” Similarly, authoritative texts refer to border conflicts against India (1962), the Soviet Union (1969) and Vietnam (1979) as “self-defense counterattacks.” The seizure of Paracel Islands from Vietnam in 1974 by Chinese forces was another example of offense as defense.
All these cases of preemption occurred when China was weak, poor and internally torn. So today, China’s growing power naturally raises legitimate concerns. A stronger, more prosperous China is already beginning to pursue a more muscular foreign policy vis-a-vis its neighbors, as underscored by several developments this year alone — from its inclusion of the South China Sea in its “core” national interests, an action that makes its claims to the disputed Spratly Islands nonnegotiable, to its reference to the Yellow Sea as a sort of exclusive Chinese military-operations zone where the U.S. and South Korea should discontinue holding joint naval exercises.
China also has become more insistent in pressing its territorial claims to the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, with Chinese warships making more frequent forays into Japanese waters.
As if to signal that it is acquiring the military power to enforce its claims, China has since April conducted large-scale naval exercises, first near Japan’s Ryukyu Islands chain — with a Chinese helicopter buzzing a Japanese destroyer — then in the East China Sea and, most recently, in the Yellow Sea.
In Tibet, the official PLA (People’s Liberation Army) Daily has reported several new significant military developments in recent months, including the first-ever major parachute exercise to demonstrate a capability to rapidly insert troops on the world’s highest plateau and an exercise involving “third generation” fighter-jets carrying live ammunition.
In addition, the railroad to Tibet, the world’s highest elevated railway, has now started being used to supply “combat readiness materials for the air force” there. These military developments have to be seen in the context of China’s resurrection since 2006 of its long-dormant claim to India’s northeastern Arunachal Pradesh state and its recent attempts to question Indian sovereignty over the state of Jammu and Kashmir, one-fifth of which it occupies.
Against that background, China’s increasingly assertive territorial and maritime claims threaten Asian peace and stability. In fact, the largest real estate China covets is not in the South or East China Seas but in India: Arunachal Pradesh is almost three times larger than Taiwan. Respect for boundaries is a prerequisite to peace and stability on any continent. Europe has built its peace on that principle, with a number of European states learning to live with boundaries they do not like.
Efforts to redraw territorial and maritime frontiers are an invitation to endemic conflicts in Asia. Through its overt refusal to accept the territorial status quo, Beijing only highlights the futility of political negotiations.
After all, a major redrawing of frontiers has never happened at the negotiating table in world history. Such redrawing can only be achieved on the battlefield, as Beijing has done in the past.
Today, whether it is Arunachal Pradesh or Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands, or even the Spratlys, China is dangling the threat to use force to assert its claims. In doing so, China has helped reinforce the specter of a China threat. By picking territorial fights with its neighbors, China also is threatening Asia’s continued economic renaissance. More significantly, China is showing that it is not a credible candidate to lead Asia.
It is important for other Asian states and the rest of the international community to convey a clear message to Beijing: After six long decades, China’s redrawing of frontiers must now come to an end.
Brahma Chellaney is the author, most recently, of “Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan” (HarperCollins, 2010).
The Japan Times | October 1, 2010
China Throws Strategic Challenge At US In South China Sea
Portending the pattern of China’s Grand Strategy to banish the United Sates strategically from East Asia in particular and from Asia-Pacific as a whole, China has thrown the first challenge to the United States in the South China Sea. China ever since its emergence as a Communist State in1949 has been laying historical claims to territories it asserts had been wrested from it over the centuries.
China had all along from 1949 had asserted claims to the South China Sea but had put a half- open lid and allowed it to simmer without it blowing over. Suddenly, so it seems, China in the spring of 2010 commenced terming the South China Sea as a “core national interest” articulated as such by Chinese interlocutors with senior US Administration officials. However, China had started ratcheting up tensions on this issue from 2008 onwards.
China placing South China Sea under the category of “core national interest” along with Taiwan, Tibet, and Xingjian clearly indicates that China has placed this issue in the category of “non-negotiable issues” and that China would use force if necessary against any nation disturbing its sovereignty over the South China Sea. This is an assertion which provides a strategic challenge to the United States and of concern to China’s neighbors.
This was a marked change from the 1990s when China had endorsed the ASEAN Declaration on peaceful resolution of the islands disputes with a host of ASEAN countries. The United States too then stepped short of taking sides on the legality of the islands disputes but made it clear that it would not countenance any use of force or threat of force to settle the disputes or any obstruction to the free passage of naval and maritime traffic through the South China Sea. Implicit in this declaration was a message to China which dominated the dispute.
Despite the endorsement of the Peace Declaration, China continued its aggressive actions in the South China Sea islands particularly against Vietnam and Philippines. China also maintained that any resolution of the disputes should be done bilaterally and not even in an overall ASEAN context. In other words it was intended to deny the United States any role on these issues.
Defining the South China Sea as a “core national interest” by China in 2010 is a game-changer in the East Asia strategic geometry. In one swift stroke, China has changed the overall dimension of the South China Sea disputes from one of islands disputes with East Asia and South East Asian countries to one of a global power play between the United States and China.
In a certain way, this can also be construed as the first shot fired by China towards the inevitability, which one has maintained, of an ultimate conflict between China and the United States for strategic predominance in East Asia.
This Paper intends to examine the following issues related to the theme of this Paper:
South China Sea : China’s and United States Opposing Stances
China’s Strategic Arrogance in Elevating the South China Sea Issue to a Virtual Flashpoint: The Determinants
United States Stiffens Policy Stance on the South China Sea Issue: Political Signaling to China
Strategic Lineup in East Asia Favors the United States
South China Sea: China’s and United States Opposing Stances
Chinese maps are showing the entire South China Sea from Taiwan to Indonesia as under Chinese sovereignty. In other words the South China Sea in China’s policy formulations is virtually an inland sea of China. In July 2010 China declared that it exercises “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea”.
China’s recent classification of the South China Sea as a “core national interest” akin to Taiwan, Tibet and Xingjian, carries the following strategic implications:
China is not open to any discussion on its sovereignty claims over the South China Sea and like Tibet would not hesitate to resort to use of force to ensure its sovereignty.
China would not permit any foreign companies in oil and gas exploration projects in the South China Sea.
Implied in this assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea is that China intends to deny the usage of this Sea to the United States and its allies.
If China has her way, it would mean that the operational movements of US Navy Seventh Fleet and other US Navy assets through South China Sea would be restricted
In other words, China wants to push out the United States from the South China Sea Region with multiple strategic objectives in view, and these can be analyzed as under:
China’s naval entry into the Indian Ocean through the South China Sea and so also her growing dependency on the sea-lanes traversing this Sea cannot in future be interfered with by the US Navy and its allies.
Unravel the United States security architecture in the Western Pacific which presently lies on China’s doorsteps extending from South Korea, Japan. Taiwan, Philippines, and now presumably incorporating Vietnam and Indonesia.
Appropriate to itself the entire energy resources lying embedded over a million square miles of the South China Sea for China’s exclusive use and offset her vulnerable dependency on Gulf Region oil supplies.
The United States has not been unaware of China’s strategic designs on the South China Sea, and right from the mid-1990s it has been making appropriate declarations to politically signal China that it would not be an idle spectator. Some assertions to this effect are quoted below:
In a US State Department Declaration of May 1995, adding to advice that China should adhere to the 1992 ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea, the United States officially asserted and emphasized that “unhindered navigation by all ships and aircraft in the South China Sea is essential for the peace and prosperity of the entire Asia Pacific region, and the United States”
It further went on to declare that “United States would view with serious concern any maritime claims, or restriction on maritime activity in the South China Sea area that was not consistent with international law including the UN Convention on Law of the Seas.”
In a similar vein, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security asserted in 1995, that “if conflict occurred in the Spratlys ( South China Sea islands claimed by China) the United States would be prepared to provide escorts and ensure that free navigation continued”
At about the same time or so, one distinctly remembers the US Assistant Secretary of State Winston Lord declaring that the “United States would not be an innocent bystander to use of force by China in the South China Sea” or words to that effect.
A retrospective review of events thereafter would indicate that China paid no heed to these United States policy declarations and continued with its “creeping aggression” in the South China Sea.
Belatedly, in 2010, it finally dawned on the United States policy establishment that China was endangering United States forward military presence in the Western Pacific and fresh assertions were required to be made by the United States on the issue.
Since these are of recent memory they need not be reproduced verbatim. However, in essence, statements made by the US Secretary of Defense Gates at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May 2010 and by US Secretary of State Clinton at the ASRF Meeting in Hanoi in July 2010, were unambiguous in making it known that the United States was no longer oblivious to China’s destabilizing activities in the South China Sea Region.
The US Secretary of State Clinton’s statement in Hanoi was succinct which stated: “The United States has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons and respect for International Laws in the South China Sea.”
On US Secretary of Defense statements in Singapore in May2010 China reacted by canceling his China visit that was to follow and the Chinese reaction to Secretary of State Clinton’s statement was that it amounted to an “attack on China”.
The July 2010 assertions by China that China’s sovereignty on South China Sea is indisputable and going further to classify the South China Sea as a “core national interest” seems to be a strategic broadside fired by China against the United States. It is a challenge thrown by China to the United States and it remains to be seen as to how the United States picks the gauntlet.
China’s Strategic Arrogance in Elevating the South China Sea Issue to a Virtual Flashpoint: The Determinants
China’s strategic arrogance in elevating the South China Sea issue to a virtual flashpoint and a potent one at that, once again reinforces the image of China as a nation having the propensity for conflict and brinkmanship. To the international community it is slowly dawning that China is not going to turn out as a responsible stakeholder in East Asia stability. Further, that China’s rise in the global power trajectory is going to be troublesome for the international community and more so to its East Asian neighbors.
Contextually, China may have been prompted by the following major determinants to have become more aggressive in the last two years:
Strategic vacuum in East Asia resulting from United States being strategically distracted in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Chinese perception that United States power is declining and that the United States needs China’s support in Afghanistan, reining in Pakistan and also Iran.
China’s accelerated military build-up with emphasis on its strategic arsenal, naval capabilities and the air force to levels deterring the United States from any military intervention, and consequently reducing American political and military coercion over China
United States economic health being directly related to China’s fiscal policies
United States timidity in the last few years against China arising from its strategic commitments in South West Asia
United States according over-exaggerated importance to China’s strategic importance more arising from US policies in relation to Russia.
United States strategically ambiguous China policies in the recent past
What has really triggered China’s current aggressiveness is the perception that the United States belatedly recognizing its strategic inattentiveness to East Asia security, has in the last year or so weaned away South Korea and Philippines from their China-leanings and reassured Japan. The United States has also moved closer to Vietnam. In China’s perceptions, therefore, the United States has virtually drawn a “ring of containment” around China and that China should assert itself before that noose is firmly drawn by the United States.
United States Stiffens Policy Stance on the South China Sea Issue: Political Signaling to China
The United States stiffening of policy stances on the South China Sea marks a defining shift in United States Asian and China policies. The assertions by US Defense Secretary in Singapore and the US Secretary of State in Hanoi are reflective of this.
China seems to have pushed the United States a bit too far in East Asia impinging on United States image and political and strategic standing by aggressive acts not only against Japan and South Korea but directly against the United States too.
In the South China Sea ever since 2008, China has been provocatively “buzzing” United States naval ships and aircraft on surveillance duties in international waters.
China’s record of behavior in 2010 overall has been downright aggressive from the East China Sea sinking of South Korea Navy ship by a North Korean submarine, warning the US not to conduct joint exercises in the East China Sea, the coercion of Japan over the arrest of a Chinese trawler captain which deliberately rammed into a Japanese Coast Guard ship and warning US oil giant companies from prospecting in the South China Sea Also related contextually is China’s accelerated supply of fighter aircraft and frigates to Pakistan and its obtrusive military presence in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
That United States-China relations on the downslide was analyzed in detail by this author in his Paper “United States-China Relations on the Downslide” (SAAG Paper No3860 dated 14 June 2010) and need to be read to grasp the context of the showdown in the South China Sea.
The United States seems to have sent the following political signals to China through the stiffening of its stance on the South China Sea:
United States is firmly intent on refurbishing its East Asia security architecture which virtually stood neglected by the US in this decade..
United States will henceforth adopt a more pro-active role or a more intrusive role in South East Asia after having let China succeed in establishing a substantial presence in that region by using its “soft power”
United States is determined to sustain its strategic predominance in East Asia specifically and in Asia Pacific overall. More to the point, the United States will prevent the rise of China as a hegemonistic power in East Asia
And therein lies the strategic rub for China.
One can safely assert that the United States has stiffened its stances against China prompted by a belated realization that China today was now shifting from exercise of “soft power” diplomacy to one of exercise of “hard power” flexing of its new found strategic muscles in East Asia and South East Asia
Strategic Lineup in East Asia Favors the United States
The strategic lineup in East Asia behind the United States scores heavily over China. Other than North Korea, China is bereft of any substantial allies in the region.
China seems to have been emboldened to adopt intransigent stances in East Asia against the United States with a feeling that lately the East Asian nations were adopting stances independent of United States and vulnerable to Chinese coercion
The charges presently being made by China that the United States by its new stances on South China Sea is following a policy of “divide and rule” applies more to what China was doing all along in the region when the United States was strategically distracted in Afghanistan.
The strategic lineup behind the United States can firm-up only when the United Sates dispenses with the strategic ambiguities in its “China policies” followed so far. All the nations in the US line-up are fearful of China and welcome the forward military presence of the United States. However, all of them have the expectation that the United Sates does not “waver” as a result of its propensity to indulge in “hedging strategies” against China.
Concluding Observations
China has finally thrown a strategic challenge to the United States in East Asia over the South China Sea issue. It was long in coming as the United States was permissive of China’s exercise of “soft power” in the region while China kept building up its “hard power” facilitated by United States economic investments in China.
The United States needs to call China’s bluff this time in its policy of intense brinkmanship. China can hardly afford to enter into any armed conflict with the United States over the South China Sea issue.
In this connection, it is worth quoting views of the eminent American media personality, Robert Kaplan on the subject:
“The roadside bombers in Iraq showed us the low- end of asymmetry. What China is showing now is the high-end of asymmetry, far more subtle, not designed to get into war with the United States, but to deny us access to the South China Sea. And the really hot areas in the coming years and decades, is going to be the South China Sea.”
The United States would be well advised not to lose its “strategic will” in the strategic mind-games that China will resort to against the United States in pursuance of its Grand Strategy to banish the United States from the Western Pacific.
The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. o
SAAG is the South Asia Analysis Group, a non-profit, non-commercial think tank. The objective of SAAG is to advance strategic analysis and contribute to the expansion of knowledge of Indian and International security and promote public understanding. In so doing, the SAAG seeks to address the decision makers, strategic planners, academics and the media in South Asia and the world at large. The group holds the concept of strategy in its broadest meaning-including mobilization and application of all resources to understand national and international security. The aim of the group is not to compete with Governments, Academics, NGOs or other institutions dealing with strategic analysis and national security but to provide another point of view for the decision makers and other national/international think tanks.
Eurasia Review | October 4, 2010
France Back in Fourth Place in Weapons Export League
France has hauled itself back into fourth position in the weapons export leagues. “But our position in tables and leagues is not what’s important. Our objective is to make sure that our industry has two equal legs to stand on: national orders and export orders,” remarked Laurent Tesseire, the defense ministry spokesman while presenting the figures at a press conference this morning.
The mechanism put into place by the defense and foreign ministries, together with industry and the prime minister’s office, to redress a situation which had become critical in the middle of the last decade when orders hovered around the €4bn a year mark between 2001 and 2005, is bearing fruit: orders in 2009 were worth €8.16bn ($11.3bn), 22% up on the 2008 figure and the best showing since 2000.
Taking officially-available figures between 2004 and 2008, the French MoD estimates that the annual average of actual deliveries (as opposed to just orders because orders can be made and then cancelled) gave the United States 52.4% of the export market. The United Kingdom comes second with 13.4%, then Russia with 8.4%, France with 7.2% and Israel in fifth place at 5.3%. “The hierarchy of this ‘Top 5′ which encapsulates the main suppliers of high technology equipment, has barely evolved over the past few years”, the report states, but adds that “we are seeing increasing activity from new actors, such as South Korea.”
Brazil was France’s principal client in 2009 thanks to the export order for four Scorpene-class submarines.
Aviation Week | October 6, 2010
Recent Comments